Asom goes to polls in a few days. Polling to the 126-strong Assam legislature will be held in two-phases on April 3 and April 10. The last few months have witnessed several events with far-reaching consequences for the State. The Centre amended the Foreigners (Tribunal) Order in February 1964 by the Foreigners (Tribunals for Assam) Order 2006, inserting a few controversial provisions including the 'onus of proof' clause, which lays the onus of proof on the police to establish the identity of suspected foreigners. Illegal influx from Bangladesh a major problem plaguing the State and will play a defining role in deciding the future of the political parties in the State during the upcoming elections. There is very real danger of the Assamese becoming a minority in their own homeland in a few yearsif the present rate of influx continues. Muslims in Assam hold the key in almost 40 of the 126 assembly constituencies. Pakistani ISI agents and their collaborators are very active in Asom. The recent events in Bangladesh show what happens when the State panders to hardline Islamist groups. Already groups like the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA )are operating in Asom.

In the last 2001elections, the AGP had tied up with the BJP, but managed to clinch only 20 seats with the BJP getting eight. The Congress stormed to power winning 71 seats. There has been a vertical split in the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) party with the former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta forming the Asom Gana Parishad(Progressive). The last few days witnessed a series of pre-poll alliances. The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has forged an alliance with four parties, which include the Communist Party of India (CPI), Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), Samajwadi Party and the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC). The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has also entered into a seat-sharing agreement with the Trinamool Gana Parishad (TGP)(formed from the erstwhile AGP) and decided to leave two constituencies for the TGP. The Congress has forged an alliance with the Bodo People's Progressive Front (BPPF) led by the former ultra leader Hagrama Mohilary. Contrary to expectations, the AGP and the BJP have not entered into a pre-poll alliance till now. A new political formation- the Asom United Democratic Front (AUDF), is backed by the Assam chapter of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind and 12 other prominent Muslim and linguistic minority groups. The AUDF has joined hands with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) . In another far-reaching development , Congress MP, A F Golam Osmani, has announced the formation of a 22-member independent block outside Congress.

The Congress' hold over the minority voters appears to be shaky following the Supreme Court verdict repealing the IM(DT) Act. The AUDF was formed in reaction t its percieved apathy of the Congress towards the minorities. Another issue which may affect the electoral fortunes of the Congress is the Kakopathar firing incident in which 8 protestors, including women, were killed in an Army firing, during protests against the killing of Ajit Mahanta, a villager, suspected to be a ULFA linkman, while in Army custody. According to the villagers, Ajit Mahanta was in no way related to the ULFA and was killed in cold blood by the Army. Asom witnessed large-scale protests against the Army's highhandedness in Kakopathar. There is some hope in Asom after the meetings between the People's Consultative Group's (PCG) and the Central government, that would pave the way for direct talks between the ULFA and the Central government. The peace process with the ULFA is at a crucial stage now.

Another burning issue in Assam is the Assam-Nagaland border dispute. Nagaland has illegally encroached upon hundreds of acres of Assam's territory and the Nagaland government is hand in glove with the militants who are taking advantage of the ceasefire with the Central government. The NSCN(I-M's) demand for the incorporation of Naga-inhabited territories in Assam , Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur in the proposed Nagalim is a sore point. Unemployment is also another burning issue in Asom. The problem of militancy cannot be solved without addressing the unemployment issue. While the Karbi-Dimasa clashes, which flared up in Karbi Anglong, have temporarily subsided, there is a need to address the long-term animosity between the Dimasas and the Karbis.

There have been apprehensions of poll violence Asom, especially by the banned ULFA, given its penchant for carrying out strikes during events of importance. Security forces need to be on high alert during the elections. Hence the elections in April in Asom are very significant, to decide whether there is a turnaround in the fortunes of the State and the people of Asom or whether the State spirals down into anarchy.