Facts: Three bomb blasts occurred in quick succession at different crowded locations in Varanasi on the evening of 7 March; they included the Sankat Mochan temple to Hanuman, opposite the Kashi Vishwanath temple, one of the most revered temples in India for the Hindus. The other two bomb blasts took place in the Cantonment railway station and the Shivganga Express bound for New Delhi. It is estimated that some 21 deaths have taken place and that 62 were injured, but this figure is bound to rise as a percentage of the wounded, taken to hospital for medical treatment, would succumb to their injuries. The choice of the holy city of Varanasi for indulging in this mayhem, and the simultaneity of the three explosions at different places clear points to some central direction obtaining.

Who could be the perpetrators? It is still too early for the investigation agencies to find out and name the organisation and individuals involved in these dastardly attacks. But, if past history is any guide to their identity, taking into account the modus operandi involved, then the finger of suspicion points clearly to the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), the terrorist organisation responsible for similar bomb blasts in New Delhi and Ahmedabad in the recent past, but also the abortive attempt to storm the Ram Mandir site in Ayodhya. The hand of other terrorist organisations like the Jaish-e-Mohammad and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen can also be suspected, but the prime suspect remains the LeT.

Why LeT? Apart from its past involvement in similar terrorist attacks and their common pattern, the LeT is known to be ideologically persuaded. It has set before itself the larger objective of promoting Islam globally though acts of terror perpetrated against the infidels. Hindu India is an obvious target for the LeT. These bomb blasts could simultaneously be designed to mobilise the Muslims in India, who are rightly admired for not having joined extremist and fundamentalist organisations like the Taliban and al Qaeda to derive global ambitions, which is unacceptable to the LeT. It is well known, incidentally, that the LeT functions practically with impunity in Pakistan, despite President Musharraf's promises to the contrary. In fact, the belief is widespread that the LeT is a creation of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) organisation.

Timing and Intentions? Why were these attacks launched at this particular time? It is possible that five reasons were operating.

First, the proximity of Holi meant that large numbers of people would assemble in temples and both railway platforms and trains would similarly be crowded, making them easy targets, while surveillance would be difficult, perhaps even relaxed. It would be recollected that the New Delhi blasts occurred a day before Diwali and were set off in, among others, crowded market places.

Second, advantage might also have been taken of the current inflamed sentiments among the Muslims in U.P. over the cartoon controversy surrounding the alleged desecration of the Prophet Muhammad's image in European newspapers, which has led to worldwide protests. Last week the violence in Lucknow in local demonstrations had led to a police firing and the loss of some Muslim lives; so the Varanasi outrage could have been in retaliation.

Third, given the LeT's links with Pakistan's ISI, could these attacks be a signal to the United States? The message sought to be conveyed would be that, if Pakistan is denied equality with India in the matter of nuclear technology transfers, it could turn on the cross-border terrorism faucet, apart from switching off its anti-terrorism efforts against the Taliban and al Qaeda leadership, now known to be hiding in Pakistan's tribal belt. Speculative, but not improbable.

Fourth, the possibility of these attacks being designed at a sensitive time of the year-Holi is a boisterous festival-- to instigate communal violence, deepen the communal divide, and strengthen Islamic extremist and fundamentalist elements is possible. Merely because this is a generally touted reason to explain such terrorist actions does not mean this explanation must be ruled out of hand.

Fifth, the aspect of revenge terrorism cannot be ignored. The recent elimination of several LeT cells by the authorities in successful counter-terrorism operations could be a motive. And, there is also the unresolved matter of the Gujarat riots that witnessed both large-scale atrocities against the Muslim community, but also the gross miscarriage of justice against those who perpetrated these atrocities. The mills of justice are only now beginning to grind slowly.

Conclusions: These are preliminary observations. The investigations will, hopefully, reveal the identities of the individuals and organisations that have carried out these heinous acts and their reasons for these actions, however incomprehensible and mindless they would seem to logical individuals.