Iran's Nuclear Weapon Ambitions

17 Feb, 2006    ·   1941

Ajey Lele analyses the double standards of both Iran and the world community


The recent voting at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting in Vienna indicates that the P-5 countries have cornered Iran for its nuclear transgressions. However, concerns are being raised in certain quarters regarding the effectiveness of the steps being taken to stop Iran from going nuclear. Some have opined that a realistic goal for the world community would be to delay Iran's entry into the nuclear club to the extent possible.

Many arguments and counterarguments are being offered regarding Iran's nuclear bomb making potential, largely based on circumstantial evidence. It is argued that if poor states like Pakistan and North Korea can make nuclear weapons without possessing much technical expertise then Iran could also achieve nuclear weapon status. Secondly, Iran's security calculus demands the need for nuclear weapons since it has to coexist with nuclear Israel.

The IAEA recently published a report, which claims to reveal evidence linking Iran's supposedly peaceful nuclear programme and its military work on high explosives and missiles. The report is based in part on intelligence provided by the United States, and refers to a secret Iranian project called the 'Green Salt Project'. This project is linked to programs for uranium processing, manufacture of high explosives and missile warhead design.

The Green Salt Project derives its name from uranium tetrafluoride, also known as green salt, which is an intermediate product in converting uranium ore into uranium hexafluoride-a toxic gas that can be enriched or purified to make fuel for nuclear reactors or bombs. An assessment of Iran's nuclear potential indicates that fuel production - which Iran claims is purely for civilian purposes - could be linked it its military program.

To understand Iran's hidden intentions it is necessary to view their various projects jointly. Their fuel project, the high explosives tests and the design of a missile re-entry vehicle when viewed jointly offer some linkages. The tests of high explosives are of particular concern. This is because one of the key challenges in assembling a nuclear weapon is designing the ring of conventional explosives that can be used to compress the nuclear material, setting off a nuclear chain reaction. And analysts are unable to find the logic behind the group of uranium conversion experts involved in making fuel for nuclear reactors having linkages with people doing studies on explosives and re-entry vehicles. All these linkages are forcing the analysts to conclude that Iran is currently working on various technologies relating to nuclear weapons and delivery systems in a standalone mode and may subsequently integrate them.

Bush administration officials are not convinced that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme, mainly because they possess documentation showing "smoking gun" evidence. The evidence they claim is a laptop computer stolen by an Iranian citizen in 2004. Its hard disk consists of designs by a firm called Kimeya Madon for a small-scale facility to produce uranium gas, the construction of which would provide Iran with a secret stockpile that could be enriched for making fuel or for bombs. Drawings are available on this laptop for modifying Iran's ballistic missiles to accommodate a nuclear warhead. Beyond the computer files, a captive Pakistani arms dealer recently made uncorroborated statements that Iran received several advanced centrifuges, equipment that would advance its nuclear knowledge.

Iran's quest for 'nuclear weapon technology' is not a recent phenomenon. Almost two decades back they had obtained documents from the A.Q. Khan laboratory. These documents consist of technical drawings relate to the process of 'casting and machining' uranium into 'hemispherical forms'. The only known application for such technology is for producing the pit, or spherical core, of a nuclear weapon. Today, Iran has made the nuclear energy issue an emotive issue linked to its national pride. Even though Iran's demands for nuclear energy are legitimate but such circumstantial evidence about their quest for nuclear weapons is worrisome.

Unfortunately, apart from Iran, the rest of the world (particularly the US) is also adopting double standards in the nuclear game. Iran knows that the US is trying to divide the Muslim world in the region by intentionally ignoring the nuclear ambitions of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Presently, it is assessed that Iran is a minimum of being ten years from crossing the nuclear threshold. Only time will tell whether the discriminatory nuclear weapon lobby will cap it!

POPULAR COMMENTARIES