With the visit of the US President George W. Bush to Asia, the US is once again trying to grapple with the momentous transformation that has taken place in global politics in the last few years. The locus of international politics has shifted from Europe to Asia and the Bush's four-nation tour of Asia was an acknowledgement of this reality. Bush's visit came at a time when his administration is trying to carve out a coherent strategy for Asia.

The underlying thrust for recasting US security strategy for Asia is as a result of China's phenomenal rise as a global economic and political power in the last few decades. China's extraordinary rates of economic growth have given it the ability to rapidly modernize its military. Consequently, the balance of power in Asia has undergone a radical transformation in the last few years and has given rise to new regional tensions. The emerging Sino-Japanese tensions are just one of its manifestations. Despite growing economic ties between China and Japan, Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations are at an all-time low. A range of political and territorial disputes have plunged relations between Asia's two biggest powers to a historic low.

During the recent visit of the Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defence, to Japan, the US and Japan signed a major mutual-security agreement that will lead to a new security architecture in Asia-Pacific. The ultimate aim of the recent agreement is to help Japan become more able to counter a range of threats to its security. Towards this end, a closer US-Japan military cooperation is envisioned, including the basing of an American nuclear-powered naval vessel in a Japanese port. A major realignment of American forces and bases on Japan is also in the offing with the US agreeing to withdraw about 7,000 Marines from Okinawa. During his visit, Bush also emphasized America's close political, economic, and security ties with Japan and made it a point to challenge China on its record on democracy. He went to the extent of suggesting that China should emulate the democratic progress of Taiwan.

By visiting Japan, South Korea and Mongolia, and meeting with leaders of Indonesia and Malaysia at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, Bush was sending a signal to China that the US continues to have close allies in the region and it intends on protecting its interests in Asia. Even as the US has been focusing on its war on terror over the past three years, China has undercut US influence by some subtle diplomacy not only in Asia but in other parts of the world too. The US is now trying to regain the diplomatic space it seems to have lost in the last few years.

Bush dealt with a host of issues significant Sino-US differences. They included disputes over trade, human rights and religious freedom, and North Korea's nuclear ambitions even as China made it clear that it has little intention of giving up the currency controls that the US argues fuel China's trade surplus, or of curtailing its crackdown on the media and on academic and religious freedoms. As if to underscore his concerns and to send a message to China's leaders, Bush also attended church services at a Protestant church in Beijing.

There were no major breakthroughs in Sino-US relations during the visit as was expected. Nevertheless, the trip clearly revealed the evolving US strategy towards Asia. Even as the US continues to engage China economically, it is becoming wary of its authoritarian character and rising military prowess. Rumsfeld has already openly questioned double-digit percentage increases in Chinese military spending. But US policymakers have come to accept China's rising economic and political profile as a fact that the US must learn to manage rather than openly challenge. And the US is trying to manage China's rise by cultivating other allies in the region.

It is in this emerging balance of power in Asia that India's role becomes much more significant. The strategic environment that had constrained Indo-US ties in the past from achieving their full potential is now an enabling factor, as Indo-US ties are at an all-time high. India is increasingly been seen by the Bush administration as a responsible global player that can be its natural partner in the years to come.

Asia is witnessing a strategic flux and not surprisingly, major powers are trying to redefine their strategic options vis-?-vis each other. How this resolves itself in the future will determine whether Asia's future will be different from Europe's past, or will history repeat itself. And the role of India is set to become the determining factor in shaping the security environment of Asia in the next few decades.