On 21 April, the second Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus left for its destination without the media hype and coverage the first one had. This followed the successful visit Musharraf had to Delhi where he declared, "the peace process was now irreversible." The joint statement also noted that, "The two leaders pledged that they would not allow terrorism to impede the peace process." Are these statements sincere? Is the peace process irreversible? What are the prospects for continued dialogue?

The current peace process is probably the longest in recent years. And, surprisingly, this time it may actually be more successful in areas where the previous ones had failed. Generally, the euphoria generated at the beginning of the dialogue fizzles out quickly. Many predicted that the current peace process would meet the same fate, precisely because the feel-good factor had dissipated within the first few months and no tangible gains had accrued. But, the bus service was unthinkable even a few months back, though it had been on the cards for some time. The argument was that India had proposed the service on the assumption that Pakistan will turn it down, and Pakistan approved it on the assumption that India will not take it further on the pretext of appropriate travel documents not being available. However, contrary to popular expectations, the bus service has started. That it may come under militant threats or attacks is another issue. What is of significance is the fact that both countries could agree to flag-off the bus service, despite its various strategic and political implications, and the opposition of select domestic constituencies.

What are the potential pitfalls? Well, to begin with, a successful militant attack on the bus could stall the service. But it will not stall the peace process. A calibrated attack elsewhere in India can make complications for the peace process. Again, it is doubtful whether it will stall the peace process. A few months ago, there would have been no doubt about the effect a dastardly attack would have caused - stalling of the peace process. That is the biggest achievement of the current engagement. Though no significant gains have been achieved yet, the process has been consolidated. It is not solid yet, but it is not fragile either.

Arguments have been made to place Kashmir on the backburner and enmesh Indo-Pak relations at various levels so that agreements reached on non-controversial issues would eventually trickle down and extend to divisive questions also. Contrarily, India and Pakistan have repeatedly fiddled with contentious issues while continuing cooperation in other areas. This has not only met Islamabad's clamor for Kashmir first approach, but also satisfied New Delhi's insistence for a dialogue being initiated on terrorism and related issues. What appeared to be a ploy in many analyses - continue dialogue despite no progress - might actually work.

The continued peace process has also provided space for New Delhi to establish and consolidate its dialogue with Srinagar. This would not have been possible without reduced militant activity, counter-terrorism operations and a conducive atmosphere for peace-building being created within the state.

The road to Islamabad definitely runs through Srinagar. New Delhi needs to heed the voices of dissent in Jammu and Kashmir regarding the bus service. Many are not happy at the resumption of the service, because it is likely to encourage militancy. The state wing of the BJP organized a successful rally in Srinagar protesting against the bus service, despite the fact that the BJP under Vajpayee's leadership was instrumental in kick-starting the entire peace process in the first place. New Delhi needs to be sensitive to local apprehensions and accommodate them within its larger strategy; because, the people of Jammu and Kashmir must have a larger place in the Indo-Pak peace process.

The bus service has not only locked India and Pakistan into a position where they need to accommodate and cooperate, but it has also brought substance into the Indo-Pak peace process, and in some ways made the process "irreversible."