In a span of less than 72 hours last weekend (2-4October),  insurgents have transformed India's northeastern frontier into a bleeding warfront. Not surprisingly, the rebels have decided to kick-off their fresh orgy of violence on yet another important day in the Indian national calendar, Mahatma Gandhi's birthday. By the morning of October 4, the rebels have killed more than 60 people and injured at least 150 others in over 20 separate attacks in Assam and Nagaland.

The surprise was far less in Assam, for October 3 was the 18th anniversary of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), formed in 1986 to push for a separate homeland for Bodos. Rebels in the Northeast have always stepped up their violence to coincide with important days, both connected to their respective organizations as well as important days in the Indian national calendar, particularly Independence Day and Republic Day. And, in so far as the other frontline insurgent group, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA), is concerned, the outfit may have perhaps thought of snubbing Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's truce offer made on 30 September.

The message has been that the rebels are still  to  be reckoned with and cannot be brushed aside as a spent force. Both the ULFA and the NDFB perhaps wanted to drive home the point that even after the Bhutanese Army offensive against them in December 2003, they could still strike at will. In fact, both the ULFA and the NDFB have claimed responsibility for some of the attacks between 2 and 4 October.

But, the key question that has foxed intelligence and security agencies is over the identity of groups or individuals who may have been behind the twin explosions at the busy Dimapur Railway Station and the nearby Hong Kong market in Nagaland's commercial hub on 2 October. A total of 26 people were killed in the two blasts and more than 100 others were wounded.

The two  factions of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland, one led by Isak Chishi Swu and Thuingaleng Muivah (NSCN-IM), and the other led by S S Khaplang (NSCN-K), have condemned the killing of innocent civilians, thereby making it clear that they were not involved in the dastardly raids. In fact, in the 57 year long history of insurgency in Nagaland, the Naga rebels had never  indulged in killing civilians in such a manner.

Therefore, the 'outside forces' theory is doing the rounds and in fact gaining strength. The NSCN-IM has set up a 'special investigating team' headed by a senior leader of the group and has since stated that a 'non-Naga rebel group with a Naga ally' could be behind the blasts in Dimapur. Although the NSCN-IM has not directly named any rebel group, it is clear that the group, currently engaged in peace talks with New Delhi, was hinting at the ULFA. The NSCN-IM's bitter rival, the NSCN-K, is an ally of the ULFA, and both the groups share camps in the dense jungles of Myanmar across Arunachal Pradesh.

Could the ULFA, or the ULFA and the NDFB jointly, be involved in the blasts in Dimapur? Intelligence circles have since concluded that more than 10 kgs of RDX were used in the two blasts in Dimapur and that the ULFA was the only rebel group in the Northeast that has the expertise to handle, manufacture and execute explosions of such bombs. In fact, the Assam Police has only recently arrested an ULFA bomb expert who used to operate out of Dimapur. Until it is conclusively proved, the needle of suspicion will certainly be pointed at the ULFA. Even, Islamist fundamentalist angle is being probed by the Army to ascertain whether the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence could have used some illegal Bangladeshi migrants to create terror in a state currently in a peace mode.   

A significant fallout of the stepped up violence is a response from the NDFB that the group was "ready for talks." Even while it owned responsibility for killing civilians in random strikes on 2 October, the NDFB issued a statement to the media saying its chairman D R Nabla has asked the cadres and the Bodo people to prepare for peace talks with New Delhi. The NDFB statement said the group was "seriously considering Chief Minister Gogoi's truce offer" and that a communication would be made soon in this regard.

At least the NDFB's response indicates that rebels in the region could indeed be stepping up violence to give New Delhi the message that they can strike hard if they want to, but was not really averse to talking peace. The situation, however, is slippery.