The most immediate concern of countries in East Asia in particular and the Asia Pacific region in general, is the fear of miscalculation from either side of the Taiwan Straits, triggering a conflict. Once a conflict occurs, the spectators will be unwittingly drawn into it and forced to take sides. Open confrontation would take place if Taiwan declares independence or if China resorts to use of force, (probably based on its yet to come 'unification law') and the subsequent defense of Taiwan by US.

Will China use force to achieve reunification? Premier Wen's pronouncement in May calling for a 'unification law', which would legitimize the use of force, would have us believe that China would do so. Vice President Zeng Qinghong pointed out on 3 September that 'reunification of the motherland' was one of CPC's three major tasks in the new century. On the other hand China on various occasions, has been invoking 'peace' as its guiding beacon. Such contradictory trends of voicing extreme position of unification by force on the one hand and peace on the other, go to reveal the complexity of the nature of Cross-Straits dispute.

The dispute between Taiwan and China is complex due to the simple fact of the United States' involvement. The US, with whom rests the steering wheel, is involved primarily due to its contradictory historical commitments - to Taiwan based on the Taiwan Relations Act and China on the three Shanghai Communiques - borne out of US interests. It is solely this, which is going to decide the events that unfold in the Taiwan Straits a few months from now. The inability of the Democratic Party to reaffirm its pledge made in 2000, in its Convention this year at Boston, throws light on what would befall Taiwan were Kerry to come to power this November. On the other hand, the Republican Party in its 'new draft' just recently stated that US would "help Taiwan to defend itself". Though the US' 'Strategic Ambiguity' has once again been reiterated by this most recent 'new draft', it can nevertheless be seen as a slant towards Taiwan, a position reminiscent of when Bush first came to power in 2000, in contrast to the position that Bush had taken when he met Wen Jiabiao in Washington in December 2003.

Where US assurance to help Taiwan in case of an attack from China acts as a deterrent, it also deters the two actors directly involved in the dispute from arriving at a mutually acceptable solution. It is a double edged sword whereby the Chinese feel insulted and Taiwan emboldened; which in effect might lead the Cross Straits clash of sovereignty to culminate in an irrational response that could manifest itself in the form of an eventual showdown.

Both sides however, seem to be presently guided by a cost/benefit framework rather than irrationality which bodes well for regional peace. On the 22nd of August, Premier Yu Shi Kyun of Taiwan made a transit stop in New York where he asked the American people to support Taiwan "for the sake of world peace, safety and stability of the Asia Pacific Region." Though this visit did not evoke protest from the Chinese, his stopover in Japan on the 25th of August was strongly protested. Zhou Wenzhong, China's Vice Foreign Minister on the 1 September too reiterated the importance of "safeguarding peace in the Taiwan Straits." Where on 2 September, Taiwanese President, Chen, called for "permanent peace across the Taiwan Strait," the next day Vice President, Zeng Qinghong, reiterated China's "commitment to peace in the region". Therefore, the battle seems to be on who can prove better one's sincerity and commitment to peace.

On the other hand China has been making all efforts to pull Taiwan's likely supporters - US, South Korea and Japan - on its side by engaging them in multilateral forums like the six party talks. China has also been engaging with other countries in the Asia Pacific Region in forums like the ASEAN. It recently concluded FTA talks with the Philippines and Thailand.

Nevertheless, Taiwan has the moral support of countries that see Beijing's claim over the island as illegitimate. The Asian Pacific region is wary of China's ambitions. In such a case, what becomes most important for Taiwan is to maintain its projection of an image of the wronged party and prove its commitment to peace rather than be guided by sheer power politics at home. The outburst by Singaporean Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong on 23rd August, after his visit to Taiwan, which aired doubts over Taiwanese commitment to the status quo as well as to regional peace and security, is definitely harmful for public relations. However, the most recent step on the part of Taiwan to cancel its annual military drills scheduled for 9 September shows that the actors on the eastern side of the Straits have realized the importance of moderation. After all, one cannot have the cake and eat it too.