Violence in Iraq refuses to subside. Oil prices are touching $50 a barrel and threat of sabotage to Iraqi oil structure looms larger than promises from the new Iraqi government to boost exports. The politics of Middle East is becoming murkier day by day. The latest is the statement by a senior Iranian military officer that if Israel bombed its emerging nuclear facility at Bushehr, in a repeat of Israel's pre-emptive strike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear facility in 1981, Iran would attack Israel's nuclear reactor at Dimona. Iranian Defence Minister had gone a step ahead and said that, "Iran will not sit with arms folded to wait for what others will do to us." He stated to the effect that the US alone does not have the right of preemptive strike and that Iran also reserves the right to do the same. Iran issued a statement that the minister was misquoted, but in global politics everybody understands the relevance of such denials.
 
     Probably, post American invasion of Iraq, Iran intends to "reshape" the Middle East politics by emerging as a regional power center. But the question is, will Iran head for war with the United States and Israel just to prove its aspirations? Probably no, Iran understands the domestic compulsions of Bush and Sharon governments and intends to exploit them diplomatically. Also Iran covertly nurtures the ambition of going nuclear. A nuclear armed Iran would change the 'balance of power' equation in the region.
 
     However, Americans are worried because such action by Iran will start nuclear proliferation and even Egypt and Saudi Arabia may go nuclear. For last few years Iran has been playing an intelligent hide and seek game with the IAEA. Earlier this month, Iran confirmed that it had resumed building nuclear centrifuges, which can be used to enrich uranium to weapons grade and claimed its right to nuclear technology for peaceful and political (military) uses. Iranian officials have even claimed that the country could produce enough weapons grade uranium to produce a nuclear weapon within a year.
 
     Interestingly, Israel has not threatened to attack Iran's Bushehr reactor, but has only said that it will not allow Iran to build a nuclear bomb. Still Iran reacted sharply by talking of pre-emptive strikes. This must be because they are certain that Israel won't carry out any military action without a green light from America and, in this election year, America is not in a position to support them. Also Sharon is facing resistance within the ruling party for his Gaza Strip resettlement policies.
 
     For the last few months, an arms race is on between Iran and Israel. Recently, Iran has successfully tested an upgraded version of its conventional medium-range Shahab-3 missile. With Shahab-3's 1300 km range, now all Israeli military and nuclear sites are within Iran's range. There are reports that Iran is planning to build a more advanced Shahab-4 missile. Israelis on 28 July have tested Arrow II missile, making it clear that the improved anti-missile system was aimed squarely at fending off any attack by Iran.
 
     Apart from nuclear and missile issues the other angle which the US is more worried about Iran is its interests in Iraq. US fears that Iran wants to establish a fundamentalist Shi'ite regime in Iraq. American and Iraqi officials have accused Iran of instigating violence and instability in Iraq. Interim Iraqi Defense Minister has accused Iran of funneling arms and fighters into Iraq. But today Americans have got only one leaver to pressure Iran and that is on the nuclear issue. The Americans still insist that Iran is using its energy programme to camouflage the weapons programme and intends to refer the case to UN Security Council to decide on sanctions.
 
     Iran has deliberately placed its nuclear facilities in the midst of civilian population centers and they are widely dispersed. Hence, Osirak style strike on Iran is not feasible. Also an Israeli strike on Iran would endanger the lives of the American troops currently deployed in Iraq, who could fall prey to Iran's revenge. Under this backdrop, Iran understands that the US is not likely to ask the Israelis to strike their nuclear assets but will try to isolate them economically.
 
     Currently, Islamic fundamentalists are ruling Iran but they are not irrational like the Taliban. By claiming (and disclaiming) that they plan a pre-emptive strike on Israeli nuclear facilities they are just trying to raise the ante and complicate the issue. They may bargain with the US to bring normalcy back in Najaf. At this juncture, the US cannot underestimate Iran's influence on Moqtada al Sadr and their supporters inside Iraq.
 
     But, will the US go for a tactical victory at Najaf knowing fully well that after Saddam, now Iran is the main threat to the Jewish state and Iran also nurtures an ambition of becoming regional superpower by going nuclear?