For the first time in July 2004, China has come out with a deadline to resolve the Taiwan question. A Hong Kong based report stated that Jiang Zemin would solve the Taiwan problem by 2020. It said, “solution of the Taiwan question cannot be delayed indefinitely”, and “although the first two decades of this century are a ‘development opportunity period’ for China, settlement of the Taiwan issue during this period cannot be ruled out.” Reuters reported Chinese retired generals urging Jiang Zemin, to take swift action against Taiwan before the 2008 Olympics held in China.

In view of this, China’s conduct of war games in July, which (though an annual exercise) carries a warning to Taiwan. It was a weeklong land, sea and air exercise on Dongshan Island, which is 170 nautical miles from Penghu island of Taiwan. Many believe that China is preparing for a swift attack on Taiwan and there were reports in December 2003 stating PLA plan to capture Taiwan in 12 days.

Why has China come out with this deadline now? The fundamental reason is a retaliatory step toward Chen Shui-bian, the Taiwan President’s pledge to introduce a new Constitution through referendum in 2006 and then enact the document in 2008. Drawing a Constitution is tantamount to declaring independence of Taiwan. For China, Taiwan is an issue of legitimacy and regaining control of Chinese territory. It perceives this to be necessary to bring to an end the ‘century of humiliation’ and symbolizes a success of Chinese nationalism and achievement of national greatness. It is a matter also of survival for the Chinese party whose legitimacy is tied to the resolution of the Taiwan question. China cannot simply wait and watch Taiwan moving towards independence.

Second reason is the recent developments in Hong Kong which are alarming to China’s national integrity. In September Hong Kong would witness its crucial Legislative Council (LegCo) elections where half the seats will be elected through universal suffrage. Democratic Party has chances to win majority seats and in that case they can even block future legislation. This not only means strengthening democracy in Hong Kong but also erodes China’s sovereignty and “one China” formula. This gives a signal to Taiwan that one China formula which is a model for unifying Taiwan is unsustainable. This in turn would embolden Taiwan’s democracy further. So resolving the Taiwan issue has become a priority task.

Third is the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan Presidential election. Some in China believed that DPP would not win the 2004 Presidential election and that Kuomintang (KMT) would be back in power which is a pro-Beijing party and stands for reunification and greater economic engagement with China. These hopes were belied after the Taiwan Presidential election in March 2004.

Fourth, there are reports of a fresh political struggle within the top leadership particularly between Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin. In September there is supposed to be a crucial Communist Party meeting where Jiang will be under heavy pressure to retire from the Central Military Commission. Jiang Zemin, according to some reports, is reluctant to give up the post of the chairman of the CMC and wants credit to solve the Taiwan issue and enter into history.

Will China really take recourse to war to unify Taiwan? There are several speculations for and against. However, war against Taiwan is unlikely. There are many reasons, fundamentally economic. China cannot jeopardize its economic relations with the US or let its crucial FDI dry up; it will set the rest of Asia against Beijing; China will loose its image of a responsible global power and its ‘peaceful rise’ will be adversely affected; it will weaken China-Japan relations, instigating Japan to go nuclear; and finally, it will cause US intervention, create a realignment of powers which would not be in favour of China.

The price of war is heavy and the outcome of war, unpredictable. Given China’s pragmatic foreign policy and particularly its goal of peaceful development for economic modernization, it is highly unlikely for China to wage a war with Taiwan. So the present deadline may be just a posturing on the part of China. It just wants to create pressure on Taiwan and maintain its high ground in international politics.

In sum, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the political struggles within the top leadership are all linked and are decisive for China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. These issues are a political test for China’s fourth generation leadership. Also, developments in Taiwan indicate that China might have to rethink its strategy of linking economic development to political integration. Jiang Zemin strongly believed that deeper economic relations would automatically promote political integration of Taiwan to China. This did not happen, instead there is increased ‘Taiwanization’ of Taiwan.