A general approach to future options regarding the Kashmir conflict should recognize that negotiations will be lengthy, that there is no “Grand Solution,” and that the final resolution will have to be based on geography and not religion.  Within this broad framework, efforts must be made on several fronts.  First, people-to-people contact must be not only encouraged, but institutionalized through organizations and committees, and both India and Pakistan must avoid controversial and negative statements.  Next, nuclear risk reduction measures must be introduced given the possibility of accidental and deliberate use, particularly in Pakistan.  Such measures might include a Nuclear Risk Reduction Organisation (NRRO) that could provide instant communication, improve early warning procedures, prevent unintended escalation, and help build trust in nuclear conflict resolution. 

Several points are relevant to the normalization process within J&K.  As it is now evident that independence is not seen as a viable option, free and fair elections in all segments are the only way to assess the views and aspirations of peoples from all walks of life in the state.  Furthermore, maximum autonomy with devolution down to the district level is necessary to provide Kashmiris with a sense of empowerment.  There is also a need for vigorous dialogue with various parties including the Hurriyat Conference, other political outfits, and conservative forces who must be involved in CBMs and must be accommodated rather than isolated.  Overall, the Indian national consensus supports peace, and the new UPA government has set the stage for resumed engagement with Islamabad.  India hopes to lose no time in normalizing relations with Pakistan.

Another point regarding future options relates to the role of the EU.  It is felt that the EU must push for democratization in Pakistan, with the army being sent back to the barracks, a proper government being installed, and political institutions being allowed to operate freely.  The EU could also play an important role in development, particularly in the neglected tribal and Pashtun areas, and could help boost economic and technical support for institutions on which good governance rests.  In India, the EU could encourage domestic economic reforms. 

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic about peace dividends to the Kashmir conflict, and there is a ray of hope.  The most powerful aspect of this hope is the change in peoples’ moods, and it is imperative to build on this opening.  The dialogue process has restarted, the ceasefire is holding, and there is progress at SAARC with hopes for SAFTA.  Bilateral trade and commerce is improving marginally, but it needs acceleration.  Consideration of the oil-gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan into India would be another step in the right direction.  Furthermore, free and fair elections have been held in J&K, alienation is being addressed, and terrorism is under control, while the stress is, rightly, on the economy and the people.  The international environment is battling terrorism, and religious fundamentalism is becoming a universal concern.  Increased US involvement in the region – with 4-5 bases in Pakistan, as well as the preoccupation with Iraq, Afghanistan and West Asia – ensures its desire for peace and stability.  At the same time, the US is realizing that “terrorism is terrorism;” this is true in many places, and not just around the Pakistan-Afghanistan border related to al-Qaida and Taliban.  China, simultaneously, has been refraining from worsening the situation or taking sides in the conflict. 

As there is no military solution, dialogue and more dialogue is the answer in trying to hazard a solution.  In the spirit of give and take, both sides need to give up their hardline stances; India by relinquishing its claim on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and the Northern Areas, and Pakistan by not sticking to UN resolutions, and the “LOC/Valley or nothing” approach.  Of all the complex solutions, the most practical and internationally favored is to convert the LOC into an international border, with mutual adjustments.  This will not be easy; we await a proposal from Pakistan.  In the final analysis, only New Delhi and Islamabad can resolve tensions and reach an accord over Kashmir.  The EU, the US, and others should only try to help this process.  India should offer Gen Musharraf all support in his quest to resolve the Kashmir tangle.  A positive development in this regard is the proposed meeting of Gen. Musharraf and Dr. Manmohan Singh in September this year at New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. 

(This paper was presented at the conference entitled “Conflict Prevention in South Asia – What Can the EU Achieve?” in Brussels, 10-12 May 2004)