People in Gah, a village few miles away from the Pakistani city of Chakwal, are happy that a “son of the soil” has become the Prime Minister of India. Manmohan Singh and his family used to live here before Partition. Even in Islamabad, people were not worried with the Congress and its allies taking over the helm of affairs in New Delhi. They were optimistic that the peace process will go on as planned and that the mutually worked out calendar will be followed. They noted that the leader of Congress, Sonia Gandhi had made a statement to the effect that the peace process with Pakistan would go on. Soon after his nomination as the new Prime Minister, Dr. Singh, said, “We seek friendly relations with our neighbours, more so with Pakistan.”

Islamabad reacted very positively to such statements and a number of statements were issued regarding the continuity of the peace process and its readiness to work with the new government in India for peace in the region.

Than came the first blow. The new Indian government decided to postpone the two-day expert‑level talks on Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). The reason given by the Indian camp was that the new foreign minister was not in place yet. Though according to sources, during expert level talks the only thing to be done was “to discuss different proposals before the accepted drafts can go to the foreign secretaries and further up the decision making ladder”. (Editorial, Daily Times, 25 May 2004). Islamabad viewed it as an isolated event and remained optimistic that the mutually agreed calendar would be implemented without any general disruption. This remains the general mood in Pakistan. A majority of the people believe that the peace process will go on and the change of guard at New Delhi will not affect it.

However, a number of analysts have pointed out certain factors which could derail the process. According to them, in contrast to Vajpayee, who had a personal interest in the process as he wanted to go down in history as a peacemaker, the Congress leadership has no such personal involvement. It was also noted that Vajpayee was in a position to deal with Pakistan on the issue of Kashmir. Ironically, it would be Vajpayee and his team which will accuse Congress of a sell out if it tried to solve Kashmir or gave any so‑called concession to Pakistan. Unfortunately, this is a trend that is followed faithfully in all South Asia.

Other statements, which came out of New Delhi, added to the concern – “the Indo‑China model will be followed for dealing with Pakistan”, “adjustment of L o C as IB”, “economic relations first, the rest later”. Indian National Security Advisor J N Dixit was very clear when he ruled out any possibility of giving an inch of Indian controlled Kashmir’s territory to Pakistan and proposed the adjustment on the LoC. It was beginning to be felt that the peace process had lost its track and both players were back to square one.

At this juncture, according to media reports, Dixit and the Secretary of Pakistan’s National Security Council, Tariq Aziz, held a secret meeting in Amritsar earlier this month that brought the peace process back on track.

The expert level meeting on nuclear CBMs took place in New Delhi. During the meeting, it was decided to have a secure hotline between the foreign secretaries of the two countries. Unilateral moratoria on further nuclear testing was also stressed by both sides. Both sides also suggested that working‑group level meetings of all nuclear‑weapon states should also regularly take place.

The Foreign Ministers of India and Pakistan also met on the sidelines of the third meeting of the Asian Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) in China. The meeting lasted almost two hours. “The chemistry was pretty good”, according to Natwar Singh. Kasuri noted that “I’m encouraged by my meeting with the Indian Foreign Minister today… On an earlier occasion he said to me, and he reiterated it today that he would like to take the peace process further than what the BJP‑led government has done. I’m very encouraged by that”, he added.

A couple of months back, the road to peace between India and Pakistan is going to be very crooked and bumpy and we have recently witnessed such situation. Yet it seems that the process is back on track. According to a leading Pakistani analyst Dr. Rifaat Hussain, four R’s are important for the success of the process:

·         Recognition – of peace as a value and Kashmir as a multidimensional problem that needs to be addressed. While the posture may remain one of denial, the policy should be of “affirmation action”.

·         Reciprocity – instant or sequential.

·         Restraint – verbal and behavioural.

·         Reassurance – address each other’s fears, needs and weaknesses. Conversely, avoid exploiting these to your advantage.

The author is still optimistic about success of the peace process. A couple of decades back a man from the holy land came to an international forum and said, “I hold a gun in my one hand and the olive branch in the other. It is up to you which one you take.” Pakistan has extended its hand for peace. It holds neither a weapon nor a symbol. It is up to the Indian camp to accept it.