The Fourteenth Parliamentary Elections resulted in the Congress and its allies securing 219 Lok Sabha seats and forming a coalition government under the banner of United Progressive Alliance, with the Congress as the leading partner. Based on the Congress Manifesto and some of the initial comments on various issues by the Prime Minister, predictions can be made on the new government’s likely course on national security, foreign policy, defence and Jammu and Kashmir. It would also be interesting to analyze the present government’s economic policies as there are a number of expectations with Manmohan Singh at the helm and P Chidambaram taking the mantle of the Finance Minister.

Defence

The uniformed officers of the armed forces should expect a greater role in the decision making of the defence policies and also in the management of national defence. The Congress in its manifesto promised the implementation of the recommendations made for the restructuring of the armed forces. Though the Congress is likely to continue with the nuclear programme and will work towards the enhancement of India’s missile capabilities, there are as of now no indications of the specific initiatives that the government would take in this regard.

National Security

According to the Congress manifesto, the new government should provide a comprehensive multi-dimensional national security policy and also specific policies for food security and good governance. The Congress government after learning the lesson from the BJP would provide secular governance and should ensure of not allowing a communal violence to occur. The Prime Minister immediately after getting his appointment letter from the President asserted that the new government would immediately put an end to communal politics and violence.

If the new government goes by its manifesto, the recommendations made by the Experts Group to reform the intelligence agencies after the Kargil war should be implemented. Though the Congress has advocated implementing a comprehensive multi-faceted strategy to cope effectively with the twin challenges of terrorism and insurgency, the new government should also realize that good governance could be the best solution for the insurgency hit areas of Northeast and Jammu and Kashmir.

Foreign Policy

The NDA alliance government should be credited for its foreign policy initiatives. It was able to maintain good relations with the United States and later on went on to patch up with China and by the end of its term had chalked out a peace process with Pakistan. Therefore, the Congress-led alliance’s challenge would be to ensure a creative foreign policy, which would help in continuing friendly relations with Pakistan, China and other neighbours. The Congress has promised to continue the peace process but then it remains to be seen what path the government would take as the Congress manifesto still sticks in the main with the Simla Agreement. Will the Congress government be able to come up with any concessions for Pakistan and a package for Kashmir to send the right signals within and across the border?

The Congress manifesto makes mention of strengthening and expanding the activities of SAARC, working towards a SAARC Parliament and taking up major regional projects in water management, and energy. Though the party does not mention anything about SAFTA, it will nevertheless have to make its stand clearer if SAARC is to be strengthened.

With the Left parties being an important part of the Congress-led alliance, the government is not expected to have a blatantly pro-US foreign policy. Though it would be difficult for any government to ignore the United States or have an anti-US foreign policy, the new government needs to be tactful about its US policy.

Economy

The biggest challenge for the Congress alliance and particularly for the Prime Minister would be to carry out the economic reforms particularly when there is so much of expectation from the new government on this front. It was the Congress government in 1991 initiated the economic reforms and later on the NDA government carried it vigorously forward. While there is no doubt that the liberalization process will carry on as the Prime Minister himself has stated the reforms would have a humane face. The reforms package will have to take into account the requirements of all sections of society, something that the Congress had already mentioned as part of its manifesto.

The presence of Left parties in the alliance should not make much of a difference in carrying out the economic reforms primarily because the left governments in West Bengal and Kerala are themselves not really opposed to liberalization when it comes to their own states.

The Congress has an experienced group of politicians to initiate mature policies related to defence, economy, security and foreign policy but the current alliance will first have to provide a stable government to convert these policies into desired results.