A lot has been read into the results of the Taiwanese presidential election and the “defensive” referendum held on 20 March 2004. The referendum fell flat because the required numbers failed to turn up to vote. Instead, the Presidential elections provided all the excitement and heartache. Chen Shui-bian returned to office with a wafer-thin margin of about 30,000 votes, a result that unlike the last two Presidential elections has introduced an element of mortality to the independence drive in Taiwan; it was not just a wayward bullet that has done it.

The pro-independence camp has little time to lose if it wants to achieve an effective separation from the mainland, such that the international community will support it. The failure of the referendum, however, indicates that the people of Taiwan are still unsure of the future direction of their nation. There is an overwhelming urge to let things be. The Chinese economy is increasingly the engine that powers the Taiwanese economy and not many would like to upset the applecart by unnecessary bravado. The “New Taiwanese” identity may be relevant, but is not necessarily a prod for Taiwanese separatism nor is it inimical to accommodation under Chinese suzerainty. At least not yet.

The ball is really in China’s court. If China continues to deal with the Taiwanese question in the strident tones it has adopted till now, it is only likely to increase support for Chen Shui-bian and the pan-green coalition that his DPP leads. Already, despite the narrowness of the election, the fact remains that, in percentage terms, the DPP garnered more votes than it did the last time. This had partly to do with Chinese belligerence and partly to do with the fact that a referendum was being held, which had a pro-independence theme. China, therefore, needs to be careful about what it says and does.

Chinese statements since the elections on the disturbances that followed give cause for concern. Certainly, China made a point, and a legitimate one on the face of it, that it could not stand by idly in the face of ‘internal’ disturbances. But the effect it had was to strengthen the pan-green camp and allow Chen to divert attention from the fiasco of the referendum.

There remain the questions about the mysterious assassination attempt on the life of Chen Shui-bian, just a day before the country went to the polls, and whether it was a put-up job. No doubt, the investigations will drag on for some time and eventually be forgotten. The recount of votes, demanded by the pan-blue camp and agreed to by the pan-greens, is of more vital importance. However, since it is only a recount and not a re-vote, the ‘sympathy factor’, following the assassination attempt would still be obtaining. Therefore, the pan-blue coalition’s attempts to ensure a reelection.

However, it seems that the Bush administration is sure of the results, perhaps, recalling its own razor-thin victory margin over three years ago. The US, by sending a congratulatory message to President Chen, conveyed a set of messages. One, it was saying that it does not expect much to come out of the investigations into the assassination attempt – for which it has sent its experts – that would have any bearing on the situation. Two, it does not expect the recount to displace Chen Shui-bian. Finally, the Bush administration has, taking into account its own election considerations, trashed the one-China policy.

This is what should rile China the most, more than a new Presidential term for Chen. The mainland is more confident about its ability to bring Taiwan into the fold than dealing with American capriciousness. The Chinese can do nothing at the present juncture but to scowl and bear it. The smartest move would be to encourage further cross-Straits relations and link the economies on both sides closer still. The Chinese could also get rid of, or at least reduce, the numbers of missiles deployed against Taiwan over a period of time. While the DPP would probably claim this to have resulted from the referendum, China gains by giving the pro-independence camp in Taiwan fewer issues to point fingers at. The Chinese could also learn to manage the situation in Hong Kong better than use the ham-handed approach they have employed till now. Hong Kong is an example that alternately encourages and worries the population in Taiwan. There is still a substantial swing vote on Taiwan, which China should appreciate, which the differing results of the Presidential election and referendum on the island has proved.