Indian and Pakistani people-to-people contacts in the past few months have been phenomenal.  Indian cricket fans crossing the border in larger numbers, to witness the-first-in-15-years one-day cricket and test series, have been overwhelmed by the hospitality extended to them.  So warm has been the experience that one Indian referred to it as “psychological warfare” – munitions to catch the Indian mind off-guard! While the Indian team won the one-day cricket series, the cheering Pakistani crowds, the freebies provided by benevolent shopkeepers, and the extravaganza in Pakistani cities won over the Indian hearts.  The Pakistanis were equally thrilled to host and mingle with Indians.   It was an honour to have Dina Wadia, the daughter of Pakistan’s founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah, grace the event.  Sunil Shetty and other Indian celebrities left us equally starry eyed and bemused.

There is also talk of a hockey match between the nuclear rivals in the near future, and an Independence Day peace parade to be led by the respective heads of states.  The sportsmanship at play has been carried forward in the true spirit of citizen diplomacy.

The cricket matches were preceded by a historic exhibition by Pakistani businessmen in New Delhi on 3-11 March 2004, to boost trade between India and Pakistan and allay concerns that a South Asian free trade zone would result in Indian goods flooding Pakistani markets.  The India-Pakistan balance of trade currently favours the former but Pakistani products have a tremendous market potential in India.   The trade fair, which was the first of its kind in India, had close to 300 exhibitors participating from across the border.  Contracts worth millions of dollars were signed.  Pakistan’s leading entrepreneurs brought back good business.  While bilateral trade and other economic activities might create the stakes necessary to foster a mutually beneficial on-going relationship, citizen’s diplomacy or social and cultural exchanges is increasingly being seen as an effective strategy to soften intransigent attitudes and influence public opinion within states engaged in protracted conflicts.

Citizen’s diplomacy is an informal and unofficial way of creating a better understanding, than could be achieved through governmental contacts.  It is based on the assumption that more direct contacts at the citizens’ level would, with the passage of time, have a rapport-building spillover effect on state policy.  However, history teaches us that personal relationships developed through such exchanges are not necessarily durable, and there is little trust accumulated as a result.   Friction and escalation of conflict can end such exchanges and hence efforts could be lost in vain.   Peace practitioners in the Middle East have been working hard to bring about improvement in relationships between the Israelis and Palestinians. There have been exchanges between scholars, women, ordinary citizens, and even school children.  However, no level of interaction between the two can alter the structural problems that are perceived as posing long-term threats to the antagonists.  Another example can be quoted from the erstwhile Soviet-US relations. There have been several periods when citizen diplomacy had been effective and constructive.  These were followed by phases of non-cooperation, and citizens who had been brought together lost touch.  Future social and cultural exchanges had to be planned anew.  The same lessons can be applied to predict the risks in the on-going India Pakistan peace process. 

In the event of a political impasse or a military stalemate, social, cultural and economic interactions could come to a halt.   The governments may suspend all communication links, deny visas, prevent exchanges, and propagate an unfavourable image of each other.  The current peace process is highly vulnerable to Indian and Pakistani political whims that have always been inconsistent.  How long will the political leadership on both sides continue to send out dovish signals without meaningfully addressing their conflict of interests in Kashmir?   How can one gauge the sincerity of the Indian decision makers in resolving what is the core issue for Pakistan? To what extent are the Pakistanis willing to compromise on their stance on Kashmir?  This is the issue on which our hopes of economic integration and political and military cooperation rest in future.  While the peace rhetoric is an essential element in the formula, it must be supplemented by a sincere and comprehensive process of conflict resolution which ensures participation of all the stakeholders.   The importance of political and military confidence building measures must not be overlooked.  India and Pakistan may be walking on thin ice.  A single piece amiss in the puzzle, and we run the risk of getting back to square one.