What does the visit of the Chinese Defence Minister, Gen. Cao Gangchuan, mean for India-China relations? This visit is a part of the process of strengthening bilateral relations set in place after the Kargil War. Prime Minister Vajpayee's visit to China last year was the high point of this process. India and China are moving forward on the political, economic and military fronts and General Cao's visit underscores the improvement of relations between the two sides.

The visit by Gen. Cao augurs well for cementing the ongoing process of military-to-military CBMs between the two countries. The joint search and rescue mission conducted by the Indian and Chinese navies last November was an attempt by both sides to push forward this process. However, General Cao was reciprocating the Indian Defence Minster, George Fernandes's visit to Beijing. Fernandes did not go because he is India's Defence Minister, but to erase all traces of the damage done to India-China relations by his incautious statements immediately after India's nuclear tests. Fernandes' visit was appreciated in Beijing, especially because he went when the SARS epidemic had isolated China from the world. With the reciprocal visit of the Chinese Defence Minister, India and China have officially buried the hatchet over Fernandes' controversial statements.

While the exchange of high ranking visits has constructed a cordial atmosphere between the two sides, the nuts and bolts of further military-to-military contacts and CBMs are being worked out. During this visit both sides agreed to conduct a first ever joint exercise between the two armies. India hopes that this will buttress the military-to-military CBMs already in place and help to preserve tranquility on the border. A detailed discussion of the boundary dispute was not on the agenda as this subject is being dealt with by special representatives Brajesh Mishra and Dai Bingguo.

The two sides have agreed to increase friendly contacts between border personnel at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and granting observer status to military officers at each other's military exercises. One of the steps taken during this visit is to intensify Chinese language training in defence institutions in India. This should go a long way in promoting contact and fostering greater understanding between the two sides. It is significant that both China and Pakistan have long invested in training their military officers in each other's languages and this has been a factor in the cordiality of relations between the two sides.

In the post-Cold War world, there are no zero-sum games to be played and India will have to reconcile its discomfort with the China-Pakistan military relationship with its desire to improve relations with China. This does not mean that India must be unmindful of the threats to its security posed by the military agreements that China has concluded with India's neighbours, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Mayanmar. However, this threat perception should be evaluated with reference to the possibility of actual conflict between India and China, and China's commitment to providing military support to India's neighbours in the event of a conflict with India.

In the last five years, there has been a shift in the Chinese policy of supporting Pakistan against India. Beijing's neutral stand during the Kargil War was indicative of this. There have also been changes in the nature of China-Pak defence relationship. While General Cao, on his visit to Pakistan, promised Pakistan an interest free loan of $ 12 million, the Chinese are increasingly applying economic logic to charge market prices for its defence exports to Pakistan. The friendship prices that were in vogue during the deals cut in the 1980s are no longer a commercially viable proposition for China. In fact, India needs to be more concerned about the military aid promised to Pakistan by the Bush administration after its designation as a major non-NATO ally. The revelations of Pakistan's nuclear black marketing are likely to force China to reevaluate the nature of its defence relations with Pakistan, especially in the nuclear area. China is interested in constructing a responsible image for itself in the nuclear sphere and is slated to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group. AQ Khan's revelations, while not implicating China, do raise anew earlier concerns regarding its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation.

This however, does not mean that China is ready to abandon its long term strategic partner in South Asia. Pakistan is China's best bet for curtailing India's rise as a strategic competitor in South Asia and beyond the region. The challenge for India and China is to manage their competitive relationship in a peaceful manner that can steer clear of a confrontation.