The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) of 1992 had the objective of “stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. In the Kyoto Protocol to the FCCC industrialized countries had agreed in principle to cut their emissions of GHGs by about 5 percent from the 1990 level from 2008 to 2012.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report (TAR) concluded that anthropogenic reasons like the excess emission of  carbon dioxide due to heavy  fossil fuel consumption led to  global warming and that average temperature would  increase by 1.4 to 5.8° Celsius(C) by the end of this century.

The US rejected the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 as it was considered fatally flawed, and dismissed more research and study. If swing countries like Russia ratified the Kyoto Protocol, its technical needs would have been met and the protocol could have entered into force. This has not happened because of Russian interests in getting a better crop yield in its cold regions as temperatures increase. The US has encouraged bilateral negotiations with the developing countries outside the Kyoto Protocol for exploiting environment-friendly technologies and know-how.

Global Warming is Real 

Despite measures currently in place to limit emissions, combined emission is expected to rise by 8 percent from 2000 to 2010 or about 17 per cent over 1990 levels. The year 2003 was the third warmest in the past century with global temperature rising by 0.45°C over the 1961-90 annual average. The year 2002 was the second warmest with a rise of + 0.48°C, while the warmest was 1998 with + 0.55°C.  Remote sensing has shown significant warming of the Arctic region in the 1990s as compared to 1980s. On 7 March 2004, Russians explorers in a remote station in the Arctic had to be rescued as the ice around it began to break down most probably as a consequence of global warming.  Extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts and above normal rainfall are indications of negative climate changes the world over. In India, extreme weather events have now become common. In 2003, natural disasters increased by 10 per cent. One million species are threatened with extinction from now till 2050 if no action is taken to curb emissions.  

The politics of climate change has not come to grips with this impending doom. Developing countries expect a reduction in emissions by the industrialized countries through “mitigation”, the rich countries side-track the issue by harping on “adaptation” or coping with the problem.  In other words, they want the developing countries to adapt to this new threat rather than cutting or curbing their own emissions.

Pentagon Study

A study on “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for US National Security” authored by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall has come into the public domain.   Commissioned by the Office of the Net Assessment at Pentagon, it considers worst case abrupt climate change scenarios, drawing on the history of sudden climate change when it occurred 12,700 and 8,200 years ago due to global warming. The ocean’s thermohaline conveyor collapsed. This led to harsh winter-like conditions in many areas. Something similar is likely to happen very soon. 

At present, the North Atlantic is being freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh water runoff. This has made it less salty over the past 40 years. By 2010 as the temperature rises, the warm Gulf Stream would no longer be able to reach the far North Atlantic. Temperatures in some regions would drop by 5 to 10 degree Fahrenheit in a decade while other areas would experience temperature increases.  Thus, the carrying capacity of eco-systems would fall due to cold, dry and stormy climate resulting in resource scarcities (food, water and energy) and conflicts over them with national security implications like border management, global conflict and economic destitution. 

The report advises that the risk of abrupt climate change, although uncertain and with low probability needs to be elevated beyond scientific debate to a US national security concern. It suggests improving of predictive climate models to include impact, creating vulnerability matrices, rehearsing adaptive response, exploring local implications and geo-engineering options to control climate. 

Implications for India

The science and politics of climate change needs to be deliberated upon by politicians, bureaucrats and policy makers. It needs to be made simpler so as to allow the common person to understand these issues. The Kyoto Protocol must not be allowed to die and mitigation options should be demanded from industrialized countries and not just adaptation by developing countries.