The Taliban have been on the run in Afghanistan since American military action began against them in October 2001. While they may no longer be at the center of power some unease still persists in the minds of many, particularly about their future role in Afghan politics. Will the Taliban make a comeback? Or will they vanish under the pressure of huge and advanced military power of the international coalition? Or will they remain a permanent source of destabilization for the new political process underway since the conclusion of Bonn agreement in December 2001?

The answer to these questions may lie in current ground realities. To begin with, the Taliban’s fall was as dramatic as their rise. Till mid-1994 nobody even in Afghanistan knew about the Taliban. Afghans were preoccupied with the fallouts of the failure of the Mujahideen regime (1992-96) and were on the lookout for new saviors. The Taliban emerged out of the civil war and fit in that most wanted mould of the saviors. Once in power in September 1996, they ended up stuck with more serious problems at domestic and international fronts. Though they enjoyed internal legitimacy, externally they lacked both support and resources. To hunt down Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and hiding in Afghanistan, became an immediate cause for the overthrow of the Taliban regime. Out of power they joined forces with the Al Qaeda to form the core of forces of terror, targeted by the US.

Theories about the invincibility of the Taliban have already been questioned after their dramatic fall within a short span of a month. Similarly, the historical facts of the defeats of Soviet and British occupying forces at the hands of Afghans in the past have been used as a yardstick for evaluating the presence of American coalition forces in Afghanistan. That this foreign presence would give enough reason for Afghans to make common cause with the Taliban was a misplaced hope. In an interview to Pakistani journalist Nasim Zihra, Mr. Karzai said that the Afghans realized that no group in Afghanistan could stay in the political scene without American support. Even the leading tribesmen asked Karzai during his fighting against the Taliban, “Do you have support of the America government?” Only on his replying in the affirmative did they join him. Continuous war and the resultant hardships have made Afghans pragmatic. Their bravery and resilience is still above board but they know that without the backing of a rival super power (which does not exist now) they do not have the power and resource to resist American military might. They cannot forget that the Soviet Scuds and air power would have shattered the mission of the Mujahideen in the 1980s but for American Stingers that turned the tables on the Red Army.

War-weary Afghans have no reason to join the Taliban invited the wrath of international forces on the ravaged country by not taking note of the gravity of the international situation and failed the nation. Besides, out of 12500 foreign troops stationed in the Afghanistan 8500 are meant for elimination of the Al Qaeda and Taliban terror groups. Though the key leaders Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar are still at large, the arrival in Afghanistan, of the coalition forces and their search operations have prevented the mobilization of major offensives by Taliban and Al Qaeda fugitives against the Kabul regime. They are on the run on every front. Pakistani forces have been combing their alleged sanctuaries in the border areas with Afghanistan since October 2003. The combined operation of Pakistan military with frontier constabulary carried out on 24 February 2004 in South Waziristan while faiing to capture key figures of the Al Qaeda and the Taliban, definitely sent a strong message to these forces that they had no space for refuge in the wilderness of the frontiers.

Often blamed for supporting the Taliban, Pakistan as partner of international coalition against terror, is seriously engaged in destroying the sanctuaries and support networks of the forces of terror while also battling to eradicate extremism from within the country. The commitment of international forces coupled with the efforts of the government of Pakistan and the steady progress of the Afghan political process would certainly make the comeback of the likes of the Taliban next to impossible. However, having once enjoyed power in Kabul and still having some clout in the rural areas they will continue to remain a constant source of trouble to the new regime. Their complete elimination is unlikely. But if things do not work out the way they should in Kabul, forces similar to the Taliban might once again reach the helm of affairs at Kabul.