There have been two assassination attempts on the life of General Musharraf within the space of a fortnight in Dec 03. President Musharaaf faces a serious threat to his life. After four years of military rule, he has a long list of enemies who would like to see him dead. These include sidelined generals, myriad opposition parties, organized criminal gangs, and Pakistan’s jihad-obsessed religious factions. The US, by forcing Musharraf to adopt genuine democracy have strengthened the military since they believe the Pakistani military is the most orbanized force in the society. History shows that military rule sows the seeds for its own downfall. The last general to rule Pakistan, Zia ul-Haq, died in 1988 in a mysterious air crash. His death ushered in a brief spell of democracy, replete with instability and corruption, eventually culminating in Musharaaf’s coup of 1999.

Musharaaf has bought time till Dec 2004 by promising to relinquish the post of army chief and getting his presidency sanctified till 2007. This agreement with a coalition of religious parties has a major contradiction. Musharraf has to go after extremists groups that he will find difficult, as he is dependent on the religious parties that openly support Al Qaeda and Taliban. A violent change in power in Pakistan, given its past history, is a frightening scenario, particularly in the context of nuclear weapons held by Pakistan. President Musharraf is seen by the Islamic militants in Pakistan as being too harsh on Al Qaeda and the US feels, rightly so, that Musharraf looks the other way; hence while Osama bin Laden enjoys Pakistan’s patronage

India and America have stakes in Musharraf. as the  ‘known devil’, but we need to go beyond Musharraf to the fear of some 20-40 nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the militants. Musharraf may be dispensable, but the nukes are not and this should govern US official thinking. Despite his best intentions, Musharraf may not have absolute control over his own army, or may be tempted to transfer some of them in a desperate attempt to stay in power. Worse still, he may be ‘persuaded’ to transfer critical technology to Al Qaeda like Pakistan has done to Iran, Libya and North Korea. Till 9/11 Pakistan was a problem for only India but it has now become a source of anxiety for the entire world. The dangerous mix of Islamic terrorism and nuclear weapons on ‘SALE’ characterizes Pakistan policy today.

It was during the democratic regime of Prime Minister Z A Bhutto that an ‘Islamic Bomb’ was conceived in 1972. It was Dr A Q Khan, the German trained metallurgist, who built the infrastructure for the nuclear bomb clandestinely. It is a well-documented fact that Pakistan’s military had assiduously built the nuclear programme with material and equipment illegally procured from overseas through intermediaries and front organizations set up by the ISI. What could not be obtained from the West was provided by China. Pakistan’s illicit nuclear programme became a model for Iran, Libya and North Korea to emulate. Dr A Q Khan has now confessed that nuclear technology was passed on to Iran, Libya and North Korea, but insists that it was done with the concurrence of the former army chiefs, which has been denied by the generals. The government has exonerated the generals. This is understandable given the army’s hold over the government. The point simply is that it is possible today to buy nuclear technology from Pakistan or any of the sources available in the international “nuclear bazaar’ used by Pakistan. The international community must, therefore, remain alive to the dangers inherent in an unstable Pakistan. The US, particularly must ensure the physical ‘surveillance’ of Pakistan’s nuclear assets to ensure that they do not fall into the hands of terrorists. When a military dictator admits to nuclear peddling purportedly without the regime’s knowledge, the dangers of continued leakage of nuclear weapons or technology cannot be overemphasized. It must be realized that Pakistan will remain an inspiration and source for ‘nuclear jehad’.       

The US must stop equating Pakistan with India. India’s security concerns go beyond Pakistan, whereas Pakistan is India-centric Another major difference is that while Pakistan will continue to be ruled by the military or strongly influenced by it, India is a mature democracy with an institutional system of checks and balances. The US must disarm Pakistan of its nuclear assets either by persuasion like Libya and Iran and, if persuasion does not work, by military means. It is only then that its war on terror will gain universal acceptance.

In the meantime, the West must push for the real democratization of Pakistan, with the military being recalled to the barracks and a popular government is installed. It is only a democratic government that is capable of taking care of Pakistan’s strategic assets in a credible manner.