An eminent South Asian expert recently while delivering the keynote address in a regional workshop recently held in Shanghai, said that one can be sure of two things only when one is dead: one, whether deterrence works, and second whether heaven exists or not.

In keeping with the recent developments in the South Asian peace process, and the past failures, one can add in Ahmed Faruqi’s words that “only when India and Pakistan cap their military spending, and beat their swords into ploughshares, and their spears into pruning hooks, will we know that they have agreed not to use their swords against each other and to stop learning the art of war. Much has happened since Agra when India and Pakistan played for peace in full media glare. 9/11 changed the word and the word order. In this New World, old allies came together and new enemies were created. The war against terrorism brought South Asia in the limelight. Pakistan once again emerged as the frontline state. The 13 December attack on Indian parliament resulted in a yearlong military stand off between India and Pakistan. This standoff ended with an active American diplomacy and involvement. The turning point in the crisis came when the United States asked its citizens not to travel to India and airlifted non-essential staff. This, according to Steve Cohen, was a message from the Americans to the Indians that they can’t have American support in their every move.

Since April last, when the Indian Premier offered Islamabad peace talks, situation started to improve significantly, though slowly. Eid and Diwali initiatives from Islamabad and New Delhi respectively paved the way for further normalization between the two. Prior to the SAARC summit, despite repeated Statements by the Indian camp, observers were sure that during the summit, both sides would be able to move ahead with the normalization process and this is what exactly happened. The joint statement issued after the meeting between the leaders of India and Pakistan noted: “…the resumption of the dialogue will lead to peaceful settlement of all bilateral issues, including Kashmir, to the satisfaction of both sides”. President Musharraf commenting on the outcome of the meeting and the issuance of the joint statement said that it is the victory of moderates in India and Pakistan and that it was Vajpayee’s vision and statesmanship which made it possible. Colin Powell, reacting on this development said “we would lend our good offices to our Indian and Pakistani friends for favorable purposes.” These good offices could be used to keep this process moving forward. The leadership’s personality factor also played a major role in this development. Musharraf wants to come across as a man of peace here as Vajpayee seems keen on using the rapprochement with Pakistan as part of his campaign for re-election in the forthcoming elections. This week it has been decided that the composite dialogue will begin in Islamabad from 16-18 February. On the first two days, the talks will be held on the director general / joint secretary level. During these talks, an agenda will be worked out for the secretary level talks, which will be held on the third and final day. This will institutionalize the process. But the real challenge to the peace process is yet to come.

The summer would be the most important for the future out look of this process. It is when the Indian elections would be over, new government installed, and the snow at the mountains will melt. Only then one would be able to gauge the graph of real progress. It would also test the leadership of both countries. And if any or both parties failed to show patience and give the other the necessary space, it would not be hard for any one to figure out what the next crisis might look like. Both sides have to move ahead with extreme caution. Point scoring and coming out as a victor should not be the objective of his exercise. Pakistan as it seems, has done enough for the time being for a beginning. Now it is India’s turn to reciprocate. Another important point, which has the potential to derail the process, is the India’s so-called position of strength. If India continues to suffer from this mentality, nothing good will happen to the peace process. Apparently both sides have learnt many lessons since Agra, another lesson which they have to learn is that for the success of any peace process, patience is the most important thing. As it is said, let us start walking and we shall reach.