The 12^th SAARC Summit in the first week of January 2004 at Islamabad can rightly claim to be the best ever.. It was held after a gap of one year, following an intense period of tension between India and Pakistan and several other major developments in the region. The additional protocol on terrorism, the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and the sideline discussions between India and Pakistan were notable successes by any yardstick. Yet, it is important to take stock and look to the future. Three questions immediately arise on each issue. What was actually achieved? What are the immediate prospects? Finally, what needs to be done to ensure that these developments lead to positive outcomes?

The additional protocol on suppression of terrorism needs to be welcomed unequivocally. All countries of South Asia face major problems of terrorism and need collective action to counter them. It focuses on preventing financial flows to terrorists and for greater cooperation between regional police forces and agencies. Bhutan’s actions dealing with terrorism on its southern region from December 15 was noted gratefully by India and held out as an example of what was possible in the region through mutual cooperation. Yet, an agreement alone does not lead to action. There has to be greater political will and determined acts on the ground. Bangladesh’s outright rejection that there are no Indian terrorists on its soil, despite clear evidence to the contrary, does not bode well for regional cooperation. It is clear that much more work will be required to make this protocol and other arrangements work effectively.  

On the surface, the SAFTA looks impressive. Free trade was the original motive of the regional grouping and was expected rapidly to lead to prosperity for all. The achievements of the Agreement must not be under estimated, but at the same time a reality check will be useful. The two years for ratification highlights the gap between promise and reality. Each capital will now have to assess its impact on their economy. Then grapple with negative lists and tariff and non-tariff barriers. These considerations are time consuming and will have to address the concerns of domestic trade constituencies. The probability of timely ratifications is not high. The Agreement also leaves out critical issues, such as a regional infrastructure and human development fund, a regional bank or the important issue of a regional energy grid. Both in its vision and substantive measures it falls far short of the South Asian Eminent Persons Group’s recommendations submitted to the Heads of Government as early as 1998. The true vision of forging a single economic unit in South Asia, through a customs union and later a single currency, which would then transform the region to by far the largest market in the world, with all its potential for international investment and prosperity, is not likely to be fulfilled in the near future.

What will be required is much more work between chambers of commerce, business interest groups and civil societies to address each other’s concerns as well as structure micro efforts at cooperation. Through this process it is necessary to educate the people and the business community of the benefits in their daily lives as well as address their legitimate concerns. Governments will need to not only encourage such processes but also facilitate them.

The India-Pakistan summit ended the diplomatic impasse since Agra in mid 2001. The tension between them in the last two years was intense. Both sides were under pressure to resume talks and the summit broke the impasse. This alone is an important development and promises much, particularly after the cease-fire in Jammu & Kashmir since November. The diplomacy required for bringing this about was impressive. There was back channel contact, prior preparation, total secrecy and harnessing the necessary goodwill on both sides. No issue that might at all have been contentious were raised. But, it should be seen for what it actually is; an agreement on “talks about talks” in February when Prime Minister Jamali comes to Delhi.. Also, for the considerable political benefits to both sides without any concession at all by either, at least till now.

The international pressure on both countries are now gone. Even as the world expects results, they know this will take time, but will be happy that the process has begun. Pakistan’s credibility as a state was an issue. Its continued inaction against Al-Qaeda on its north-western borders and recent expose of nuclear links to North Korea, Iran and Libya ensured unfavourable press abroad. Recent attacks on Musharraf himself with complicity from within his own intelligence community, makes him even more dependent on the US for survival. India’s policy of no talks till cross border terrorism was halted, had outlived its utility. Resumption of talks enhances Vajpayee’s image as a peacemaker and as a responsible leader. Besides, the timing of the next meeting in February, before general elections in India in March/April, will ensure a good signal to the people, enhance the ‘feel good’ factor and boost his party’s election prospects, whatever the outcome of the February talks.

But, for all peace loving people of South Asia, this is an opportunity that must not be allowed to pass. A climate of peace has to be created in the region, where peace will have a chance and politicians will find benefits in pursuing it.