Some 502 delegates are attending the ‘Loya Jirga’ (grand assembly) in Kabul to ratify the draft constitution. Even as divisive issues could spoil this attempt towards reconstruction and nation-building, one of the key elements in Afghanistan’s national security, disarming the militants is taking a backseat.

After years of war and factional feuds, and repressive Taliban rule, this is the first organised effort to bring a semblance of normalcy into this battle-scarred land. Guns have been the key to power in Afghanistan. Often the one who commanded the largest number of arms rode to power in Kabul. With the Western coalition making sure that the earlier anarchy does not pervade nation-building process in modern Afghanistan, the disarming of the private armies of the warlords is paramount. However, despite clear indications of centralised rule by Hamid Karzai and his mentors, the Western powers, things do not seem to be working out, largely because of reluctance of the regional warlords to give up their stockpiles of arms.

The United Nations began their program to disarm the private armies with a pilot project in the northeastern province of Kunduz. The $41 million UN project – known as the Afghanistan New Beginnings Program – helps to eventually disarm 100,000 Afghan factional fighters and reintegrate them into civilian life. The New Beginnings Program encourages the militia fighters to exchange weapons for work, thereby withdrawing some of the estimated 8 to 10 million guns in the country.. With a population of between 23 and 26 million, Afghanistan is one of the most heavily armed countries in the world. This includes heavy weapons, rockets and artillery, while some factions loosely allied to the Central Government maintain their own forces and have tanks and armoured vehicles. The proposed jobs for the surrendered militia-carpentry, teaching and farming- will be mostly created by non-governmental organizations, the Afghan government and private contractors.

However, two factors are becoming stumbling blocks in this campaign. Firstly, while the Defense Ministry is supposed to play a leading role in collecting weapons, the process will not be easy as long as its top posts are controlled by Defense Minister, Mohammed Fahim, and his allies, who are ethnic Tajiks. Fahim wields enormous power, especially in the north, where he has his own army, as the majority Pushtuns are wary of growing Tajik influence in Afghanistan. Rival ethnic groups are therefore unwilling to give up their guns to a Defence Ministry that is viewed as controlled by Tajiks.

Secondly, Hamid Karzai's government has a national army numbering less than 6,000, despite an 18-month-old program to train a centralized national army, initiated by the United States. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), now led by NATO, is largely confined to the capital, Kabul, and the lack of a full-fledged Afghan National Army (ANA) to ensure security in the rest of the country does not persuade to the warlords who firmly believe that the Taliban is still capable of a comeback. In such an eventuality, the Afghan National Army will not be able to fight the Taliban and it will be left to the warlords to fight it out among themselves.

The reasoning is justified that the government has only a small national army; hence they should not disarm all the militiamen unless there is some Credible of force to fill the security vacuum. The fact is that people are unwilling to give up their guns until they know that there is some credible protection available for their families and their property.

Some progress has been made in the disarming drive in certain provinces like Gardez, Kunduz and Paktia, but doubts persist on the success of this campaign, with factional feuds and fears of Taliban resurgence playing on the minds of the regional leaders. Afghanistan needs a strong centralised national army to bear the burden of fighting the Taliban and the maintenance of peace among the warlords. The key to a strong Afghan National Army would be an equal representation of all the ethnic tribes into the army, removing doubts of Tajik supremacy from the minds of the non-Tajiks. Disarming would then be achieved at a much faster pace.