Once viewed in the 1980s as the center of global terrorism by the Reagan administration Libya, along with its dictator, Colonel Muammar Gadaffi, is all set to create history in the sphere of arms control and non-proliferation. Often called a ‘rogue’ and ‘pariah’ state, Libya declared, that it would abandon its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs on December 19, 2003and allow international inspections of its various sites. Gadaffi drew accolades from United States and UK, who are vigorously engaged with Tripoli since the beginning of this year, Russia and France also welcomed the decision reposing faith in the effectiveness of ‘peaceful political tools’ to resolve international problems. 

While Libya acquired notoriety by allegedly employing Iranian supplied chemical weapons against Chaddian guerrillas in 1987, and Sudanese guerrillas in the following year, its capability to produce or use WMDs has been a matter of speculation. Gadaffi had alwaysshown interest in acquiring WMDs, including ballistic missiles, to counter Israel’s clandestine nuclear program. It is possible that a desire to play a more active role in West Asia and Sub-Saharan politics could also have been operating.

After ratifying the Nuclear Non proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1975, Libya had placed its nuclear facilities under safeguards with the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA) in 1980. Since then, Gadaffi’s search for nuclear technology from countries like China and Belgium continued relentlessly. Unlike other threshold nuclear states, Libya’s current capabilities consist of rudimentary research and development programs in its Soviet supplied 10 MW research reactor at Taruja. But the recent visit of a British and US team to at least 10 sites related to Libya's nuclear program indicates that its program was more advanced than previously imagined. Experts found components of a centrifuge program to enrich uranium but could not locate one operational system, though there were indications of Libya trying to boost its nuclear program by assembling a team of nuclear experts form the CIS states. Russia is also suspected of having renewed its nuclear cooperation with Libya, providing funds for renovations to the Taruja nuclear complex.

Libya is not believed or suspected to possess biological weapon (BW) agents. Its BW research and development program is minuscule in comparison to its chemical weapon (CW) establishment. It has CW plants at Rabta and Tarhunah, near Tripoli, that are also suspected to house BW research facilities. Libya, signed the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1982, but has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) yet. It is believed that Gadaffi attempted to recruit South African scientists to assist his clandestine bioweapons program. Besides these WMD efforts, Tripoli initiated its ballistic missile programs in the 1980s with the help of German companies. It is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). US officials have revealed that Libya has acknowledged co-operating with North Korea to revitalize its Russian Scud armory.

The 1992 UN trade sanctions, imposed on arms sales and air travel to Libya after the December 1988 PanAm Jetliner bombing over Lockerbie in Scotland, was lifted in 1999 after Libya surrendered two prime suspects for trial. Thereafter, reports of increased technical and construction assistance by Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, China, India, and Russia raised concerns regarding Libya's ability to manufacture nuclear weapon. The United States maintained its sanctions except those on food and medicine. Even after Libya accepted responsibility for the Lockerbie incident and agreed to pay at least 5 million USD to relatives of each victim in August 2003, US did not lift its sanctions and kept Libya on its list of state sponsors of terrorism. In the next month the Security Council voted to lift UN sanctions on Libya. Its has now raised the hope of limiting WMD proliferation.

Though Gaddafi's recent change of mind and Tripoli's efforts to come clean on its WMD capability is not unprecedented, it could set an example for other states of concern to abandon double standards and clandestine programs. While the UN's nuclear watchdog - IAEA - would be carrying out necessary monitoring to asses the exact nature of its WMD arsenal, it is a matter of international debate whether Libya really wants to renounce its WMD programs in a bargain to boost its shaky economy and bring the country into the international fold. At this juncture, drawing implications for South Asia might be far fetched, Libya’s journey from ‘vice to virtue’ would be a lesson for all other countries of concern.