An Emerging Space Race
12 Dec, 2003 · 1244
Sqn Ldr Ajey Lele says that space ventures by the EU and China are challenging American hegemony over space
It could be said that the ‘space era’ started with the launching of the Soviet Union’s first vehicle Sputnik-1 into the earth orbit on 4 October 1957. Since then space technology has been used for both military and civilian purposes for almost fifty years by various nation-states. The role of outer space applications has evolved considerably throughout these years. Recent wars have influenced the development of space doctrines of various nation-states. Both the Gulf wars and Afghanistan conflict has demonstrated to the world the value of space assets towards controlling the modern warfare.
During the last two to three decades, a marked increase in the development of indigenous outer space programs and related joint ventures has been observed. Countries such as Argentina, Brazil, India, and Israel have already shown considerable results with the launching of various satellites into earth orbits. Various other countries like Japan, South Korea etc. are showing interest and a will to invest more in space based assets. Many other countries are planning to invest in space technology for commercial purposes.
However, this expansion in the number of states possessing outer space technologies brings the issue of dual-capable technologies to the fore. Under this backdrop the recent interests shown by the European Union (EU) and China in the area of space technology should be viewed.
Pre-1990 was a period of space war between the two superpowers. Huge investments in space-based assets were done by the erstwhile USSR and the United States. But, the Soviets could not sustain this space domination race mainly because of economic compulsions. Over the years, they have successfully spread the satellite launch technology to some parts of the world, which can also be used to deliver conventional and non-conventional (WMD) missiles of various kinds.
Today, it appears that the pre-cold war space domination war is starting over again and this time it is not Russia but the EU and the Chinese challenging the American space supremacy. In spite of stiff resistance from America, the EU has decided to go ahead with a giant space program called Galileo. This proposed constellation of 30 navigational satellites is an alternative to the United States Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite network. This is expected to be a system worth $3.2 billion. It could be used to navigate planes anywhere in the world and that too till its landing paths. China and India are also putting approximately $250 million and $350 million into this project. The EU has already finalized the deal with China and the deal with India is in its final stages.
The EU’s entry into space navigation has essentially challenged the US policy of Selective Availability of access to GPS to the users, particularly during wartime. The EU expects that GPS clientele may shift to them because the US reserves the right to downgrade or disrupt civilian signals any time. By developing this constellation, the EU is also indirectly trying to distance itself from the US. Currently, this constellation is being developed only for civilian uses (except for the EU which reserves some rights towards military usage), but the Americans are worried that, in future, countries like China may manage to use this system for military purposes.
After a successful manned space venture, China is giving indications that space technology is likely to become their future national power. They are now planning a manned mission to the moon by the year 2020. China’s past and future space program is indicative of the fact that China is looking at space from the point of view of maintaining the strategic balance of power in the region. The Chinese investments in four-stage satellite launching vehicle (SLV) is likely to greatly payoff for its space-based defence and communications systems in the near future.
China is considered as one of the shrewdest powers in the world. Hence it is difficult to appreciate that China is investing so much into space technology only for the sake of national pride. Along with the media-hyped manned mission China is silently building its space industry towards developing the technology for rapidly deploying and replacing small telecommunication, imaging and positioning satellites. They are concentrating towards solid-fuelled, long range, nuclear capable ballistic missile technology, micro satellite technology and navigation assistance technology. Also, of late China has shown interest towards ASAT (anti-satellite weapons) technology.
Currently, the control over space allows only the United States to operate globally. They can use satellite guided precision munitions during war or otherwise at will. They can carry out all their global commercial activities safely with the help of these assets. And all these US space assets are protected because no one can challenge them. Slow but firm investments made by the EU and China in space technology are giving an indication that they are challenging the United States ‘space hegemony.’