A series of suicide bomb attacks in Istanbul has brought Turkey on the map of international terrorism. On November 15, two synagogues, Neve Shalom and Israel, were attacked by car bombs that killed 20 people and injured more than 250.  Five days later, British Consulate and the headquarters of the British-owned HSBC bank were targeted, claiming 32 lives including the British Consul General. These gruesome acts of terror not only have raised Turkey’s internal security concerns, but can also have wider implications for its foreign policy. While the rise of Islamic extremists will give a tough time to the Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, at home, its influence on Turkey’s policy on Iraq could have an adverse impact on Turkey’s relation with US and Israel.

The world community was shocked by these incidents of terrorism in Turkey, considered to be a modern liberal democratic Muslim state. However, for many inside Turkey, it did not come as a surprise. For them, the real Turkey does not lie in the up market avenues of Istiklal Caddesi or Sultanahmet Square, but in the suburb of Fatih, a short ride from there. Life there is not only grindingly poor but also severely Islamic and under the control of Islamic Virtue Party, which propagates vengeance, retribution and war. Local hatred is not limited to the US and Israel, but extends to the Islamic government of Turkey, perceived to be subservient to the west and creating a sense of exclusion and oppression among the Muslim masses. The frustration is so intense that a veteran columnist of Aksam Daily termed the incidents of violence as Turkish version of 9/11.

Given these conditions, it is not difficult to understand why Turkey became a terrorist target. Shortly after the attacks, the Turkish and the world leadership were quick to blame al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden for the killings. The Turkish Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, in a televised interview said, “It is a terrorist event with international links and will not deter Turkey to fight against terror”. For the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, the strikes bore the hallmarks of the terrorist operations of al-Qaeda. This assertion is based on the logic that it is near impossible for any local terrorist group to organize an attack of this magnitude with such precision, and that it closely resembles the operational style of the al-Qaeda, i.e. simultaneous attacks on ‘soft’ targets.

However, there is no solid evidence that al-Qaeda has regrouped, nor that it’s drying financial resources restricts its operational activity. Moreover, it is the Turkish radical group, Great Eastern Islamic Raiders (GEIR) that claimed responsibility for the bombings. There is no proof to establish a link between these two organisations; though there is little doubt that al-Qaeda can inspire such local groups with its ideology of international Islamic terrorism. There is always a possibility of al-Qaeda providing financial and logistical support to local and autonomous groups like GEIR. This new face of terrorism, Turkish officials believe, emerged from home but probably got inspiration and training from the al-Qaeda.

Historically, Turkey has been an important regional power and at times has even dominated the region. However, in the recent past, it has been one of the most strategic regional allies of the US. It has closely aligned its national interests with the US strategic and economic interest in the region, which ensured regular American economic aid and military protection by being accepted as a NATO member. Turkey’s strategic position was fully utilized by the US in the first Gulf War to defeat Iraq in the northern front. The Americans expected a similar co-operation from the Turks in the second Gulf War. But there was a bitter opposition in Turkey against the invasion of Iraq. The parliament refused to allow the deployment of US soldiers from Turkish soil, and there is stiff resistance to the government’s willingness to send troops to Iraq as peacekeepers. The hard line Islamists feel betrayed by the current Islamic government over the possibility of Turkish troop deployment in northern Iraq. This has also activated the Kurdish guerrilla fighters who see it as a move by Turkish government to consolidate its hold in the Kurd dominated region of northern Iraq.

Turkey, home to more than 25,000 Jews, was the first Muslim nation to recognize Israel. Apart from being a close ally, they served as important pillars of American foreign policy in the region. The November attacks came as a shock for both the countries. The Israeli Foreign Minister, Silvan Shalom, said, “These attacks against the prayers were cowardly attacks carried out by extremists who don’t want to see countries that share values of democracy, freedom and rule of law”.

Therefore, apart from the domestic secular establishment, countries like the US, Britain and Israel will pressurize Turkey to prevent further terrorist attacks. The options are limited for the current government which may find it difficult to take effective action without antagonizing the radical Islamists.