Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the opium trade has developed a new route through Central Asia, the Caucasus, Russia and the Baltic States, which now rivals the more traditional route to Europe via Iran, Turkey and the Balkans. This has triggered increased cooperation between Afghanistan’s neighbours. Iran actively participates with Pakistan in their Inter-Governmental Technical Committee meetings held annually alternatively in Tehran and Islamabad. Additionally, senior law enforcement officials from both counties meet twice a year in Iran and Pakistan.

The 1400 km long Afghan border with Tajikistan is one of the main exit points for Afghan drugs bound for European markets. More than 10,000 Russian border guards, along with their Tajik counterparts, are involved in patrolling Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. While the traffickers use satellite phones to coordinate their drops, the guards do not have even walkie-talkies. At one border post, guards were reported to be using an old gun sight to peer across the Pyandzh River to Afghanistan because they had no binoculars. Dependent on drug trafficking and with no alternative means of livelihood, there is stiff resistance from the local Tajik population against stronger drug enforcement. A captured drug trafficker confirmed his intention to get back to the trade unless the impoverished conditions in the border areas improved. Not in a position to even afford sugar for years, the dealer argued: What’s the difference if the government shoots me? Either I’ll die from illness or from them.

In its annual narcotics certification process, the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) of the US Department of State certified the new Afghan government as being “very cooperative in the anti-drug effort” whereas the Taliban regime had “failed demonstrably” the previous year. Despite drastic changes in the drug policy and international cooperation, the situation on the ground continues to be serious. Some measures have worked but some areas and some have backfired. The Karzai government is earnestly involved in learning from past mistakes and reformulating its strategies.

A Counter Narcotics Directorate (CND) was established in October 2002 to draw up a comprehensive strategy to counter the drug problem. Iran, along with UK, is involved in training the Afghan anti-drug police. However, officials, not paid for months, are vulnerable to bribes from traffickers.

Most cultivation continues under the supervision of local warlords. The US attempted to buy the loyalty of these warlords by paying them $200,000 each and distributing satellite phones. Whether they will give up the lucrative drug trade is debatable. Karzai’s call for disbanding their private armies will complicate the issue.

Cultivation of opium poppy was banned last year and the international community provided $350 to each farmer to desist. Some took the money by cheques and vouchers, but could not encash them as they were no banks operating. Additionally, a cash incentive of $350 means little to the farmer who can earn $6400 per acre of the banned crop.

Learning from its sour experience last year, the Karzai government refrained from providing cash incentives, announced cash-for-work schemes and promised development of infrastructure and reconstruction. Weaning farmers away from poppy culture requires a viable alternative, but also massive investment in infrastructure – roads to allow farmers to bring their produce to the markets, and dams to provide irrigation.

The UN report, Opium Economy in Afghanistan: An International Problem, pointed out that to develop an Afghan economy not based on the drug trade required many short-term and long-term incentive schemes. Its recommendations included a gradual reduction in emergency food programs. Anti-drug and aid agencies had noted that with food made plentiful, farmers were feeding their families on donated wheat and leaving their fields free for poppy cultivation. In Faryab province, drug cultivation was highest in places where wheat was distributed most liberally. In Garziwan district, reachable only by horse or donkey, farmers refused to travel to accessible areas to pick up donated wheat; with high returns from their poppy cultivation, the farmers wanted wheat only if aid workers delivered it to them.

To achieve food security, Afghan farmers require adequate, safe and secure water supply as well as ready access to credit, fertilizers and quality seeds. Need assessments funded by USAID and carried out by Future Harvest Consortium to Rebuild Afghanistan along with the International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas found that access to quality seeds of improved varieties could greatly reduce rural poverty and hunger. Horticultural crops like pistachio, citrus fruits, figs, dates and almonds once accounted for 30-50 percent of Afghanistan’s export earnings. A typical Afghan farmer holds less than 2 hectares of land, necessitating cultivation of high value crops that can be grown on small holdings. Fruits and nuts, therefore, hold considerable potential for providing an alternative crop to poppy in future.

Many Afghan horticultural seed farms were destroyed in the prolonged war. Orchards have dried up, trees burnt down and nurseries closed down. While these farms are recreated, training in advanced horticultural practices and techniques might be helpful. The agricultural infrastructure has to be rebuilt in tandem with development of corresponding storage, transportation and marketing infrastructures.

Currently there are no alternatives to the poppy trade as no cash crop can match the opium poppy. But rebuilding the agricultural infrastructure would facilitate the transition to other cash crops feasible.

Two consecutive bumper harvests might see a drop in poppy cultivation in the next few years; it is most likely that farmers/traffickers would stockpile and discourage cultivation to maintain the price of the banned crop high. This would be a good opportunity for the administration and the international community to focus their attention on providing sustainable alternatives while strengthening the anti-drug enforcement agencies.