Arunachal Pradesh has recently drawn much media attention. The Mukut Mithi led Congress government was toppled by the former Chief Minister, Mr Gegong Apang, who has since formed a new coalition government. From being the lone opposition member in the state assembly, his rebounding as the Chief Minister has been dramatic. Allegations about the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN -IM) and the BJP being the ‘co-conspirators’ in the coup are rife. This change in government has occurred in the midst of several important developments on the state’s security scene and may have significant implications for how these concerns are addressed.

The foremost issue relates to the problem of the NSCN (IM) presence in the Changlang and Tirap districts of the State, and the outfit’s demand that these districts be made part of greater a Nagalim. While the Mithi Government vehemently opposed these territorial claims by the NSCN (IM) and launched “Operation Hurricane” to drive the Naga rebels out of these districts, the new United Democratic Front (UDF) government led by Gegong Apang appears soft in its approach to this issue. Mr Gegong Apang has immediately repealed the Arunachal Pradesh Control of Organized Crime Act (APCOCA) and has hinted at the suspension of the anti-NSCN (I-M) operation launched by the Mukut Mithi Government. The UDF coalition government has also took a significant decision to accord “autonomous district council” status to the insurgency ridden districts of Tirap and Changlang. These are disturbing developments and lend credence to the allegations about the NSCN (IM) having played a role in the political drama in the state.

Secondly, the Indo-Chinese border incident in the Arunachal sector, which preceded the political drama in the state, is an important security issue of national concern. China continues to claim some 90,000 sq km of Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh and did not recognize the state to be a part of India. The border incident in which both sides accused the other of ‘incursion’ reveals poor border management. Agreed guidelines on border patrolling and strict adherence to these guidelines by both parties could have saved both sides from this dampener in their improving relations. Besides, coordination between the state and central authorities in India seems wanting; the state government was unaware of the incident until much later. Letting the state government play a more active role in border management could be ensured with greater cooperation between the two levels of government in the national interest. With the new UDF government inclined towards the NDA led Central government, better cooperation in the management of the border is possible.

Third, the decade old problem of Chakma and Hajong refugees threatens to snowball into a major security problem. The All Arunachal Pradesh Students Union (AAPSU) and the Congress government led by Mr. Mithi wanted these refugees to leave the state. The new Gegong Apang government chooses to join the AAPSU and the Congress over this issue. Meanwhile, sections of the refugee youths are reportedly contemplating the formation of a militia to protect their security and future interests. If this issue is allowed to drift, a lot of avoidable bloodshed could result. Remnants of the Indo-Bangla repatriation agreement, the Chakma and Hajong communities in Arunachal Pradesh number over 50,000. The AAPSU had reportedly served the refugees a quit notice to move out on or before July 31, 2003 and has threatened a massacre if its notice goes unheeded. The Chakma and Hajongs however, are demanding citizenship rights enrolment in the electoral roll. Great injustice has already been done to these refugee communities in the name of protecting indigenous interests. On the other hand, the indigenous interests cannot be ignored by the center to serve the interests of the refugee community. A compromise needs to be worked out. Unless a well conceived central initiative arrests this problem, the quit notices to the refugees and appeals by the refugees could escalate into bloodshed. There have been reports regarding the formation of an insurgent outfit called the East India Liberation Tigers’ Front (EILTF) in the state with the patronage of the NSCN (IM) and other outfits in the region.

From a once peaceful state, the drift in Arunachal Pradesh towards conflict and violence needs to be arrested. The question now is whether a government allegedly propped up by an insurgent outfit serve these vested interests with a central government that places its partisan political interests above the people’s interest.