Ever since the 2002 elections for the Jammu and Kashmir State legislative assembly, much has been happening inside the Hurriyat.

First, the pro-Pakistan and extremist Syed Ali Geelani was forced to leave the Hurriyat. Geelani’s relations with the Hurriyat have been troubled since the 2002 elections for the state assembly. Geelani was critical of members belonging to the People’s Conference (PC), a component of the Hurriyat, for participating in the elections. The PC, now led by Sajjad Lone, responded that those who had participated in the elections did so in their individual capacity and were in fact expelled from the party. While Geelani, not satisfied with the reply called for the removal of PC from the Hurriyat, Sajjad Lone accused the former indirectly, when he said that extremist leaders were responsible for the assassination of his father ? Abdul Ghani Lone.

Abdul Lone was a moderate and senior leader whose strained relations with Geelani were well known. As Geelani’s open support for Pakistan and his extremist, at times, even hysterical outbursts distanced him from the masses, Abdul Lone was seen as a moderate leader, with an independent mind of his own. Besides, Geelani’s unaccounted wealth, accumulated mainly through hawala transactions , had to an extent already alienated the moderate sections. In the first week of August, persons who were later acknowledged by Geelani himself as known to him, were arrested with nearly a million rupees.

Geelani has failed to understand that people were no more willing to believe his theatrics. After being jailed in Ranchi (in a palace which was modified to accomodate Laloo Prasad Yadav’s as its star prisoner), and after being flown to Mumbai to get treatment for his heart (in a plane provided by the Jammu and Kashmir government), when he came out to complain that he was not treated properly and the jail facilities were poor, no one was willing to believe him. Also, there are not many takers for his claim that his huge palatial houses in Srinagar with numerous servants are maintained with a meager pension that he receives from the Indian government for being a former member of the state legislative assembly!

Where would Geelani go from here and how would it affect the Hurriyat? First, he no doubt, still has the charisma to attract a crowd for his meetings, especially in and around Sopore, considered his personal fiefdom, and also in Srinagar. In the 2002 elections, polling was extremely low in these areas. But it is possible that he may get carried away by this response and form a new platform to counter the APHC on the one side and also the Union and State governments on the other. He may also be able to get some of the second rung leaders of the APHC, who are dissatisfied with their parent parties inside the Hurriyat. However, Geelani may end up floating a weak forum believing it as the real Hurriyat or at least a parallel platform to challenge it.

The success of such a new platform by Geelani would depend much on Pakistan’s support for it. If it allows a division, in the so-called freedom movement, it would only weaken the Hurriyat and also its ‘principled’ stand that the Hurriyat is the sole spokesman of the Kashmiris. It is possible that Pakistan may not allow that, and would pressurize both the Hurriyat and Geelani to reach a compromise. Pakistan is also aware that Geelani enjoys no support in the West, unlike the other Hurriyat leaders.

Second, though Geelani has lost his hold over the Hurriyat, he seems to have retained his popularity inside his party ? the Jamaat-e-Islami, which is also a part of the APHC. Syed Nazir Ahmed Kashani was elected as the new Amir of the party. Ghulam Mohammad Bhat, the former Amir was defeated by Kashani in the elections, in which the former polled 30 against the latter’s 59. Bhat, a moderate, was against Geelani and in fact announced in May this year, that Geelani no more represented his party. Kashani, the new leader, is seen as being closer to Geelani, and his victory in fact, is seen as that of latter’s.

Third, Geelani enjoys considerable support by the militant organizations, which he had built up carefully through his pro-Pakistan, pro-militant and anti-Indian rhetoric. In fact, the militant organizations have already repudiated the APHC for their moderate stand and would fall behind Geelani.

These events inside the APHC and the Jamaat would have considerable impact on the Hurriyat, Geelani and the conflict inside Kashmir. Geelani, would lean more towards the militants to counter the Hurriyat and in the process even try to get the Jamaat out of the APHC. Besides, the close linkages between the Jamaat and the Hizbul Mujahideen are well known. Any such new forum formed by Geelani, would try to become more assertive vis-?-vis the Hurriyat and the security forces. The security forces need to be prepared in the event, not only to defend against any new strikes but also against attacks on the Hurriyat leaders.