The recent events in Iraq underscore the power and dominance that the United States of America enjoys in today’s unipolar world. Given that the Kashmir issue threatens to precipitate the world’s first nuclear war, India and Pakistan cannot remain oblivious to the exercise of US hegemony. The US’s stand on Kashmir is ambiguous, oscillating between sympathy towards India and the belief that Musharraf will honour his word. Nevertheless, the US will tread cautiously since the two neighbours can play a significant role in furthering its interests in Asia.

The Bush administration has realized that India could be a crucial ally for maintaining the balance of power in Asia, and preventing communist China from flexing its muscles. This was evident in a speech made by US Ambassador Robert Blackwill (Kolkata, November 2002), where he promoted the idea of India being the US’ partner to curtail the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in Asia. The significance of India’s regional role is strengthened by its strategic location in the middle of the Indian Ocean littoral astride the sea lanes of communication linking the Middle East and East Asia. This marks naval cooperation with India attractive for the US, since access to Indian naval bases would provide a military hedge against the worsening of relations with Saudi Arabia, Japan or South Korea.

As far as Pakistan is concerned, it has transformed from an erstwhile supporter of the Taliban to a champion of America’s ongoing “war against terrorism.” The US was able to use Pakistan’s leverage with the Taliban to convey its own demands in the 2001 Afghanistan War. In the post-Afghanistan scenario too, Bush continues to rely on the Pakistani government to root out Al Qaeda members operating from within Pakistan. The Pakistani establishment has been bending over backwards to accommodate the US, and you have America’s “kind of guy” in Musharraf. Despite the high comfort-levels of Pakistani and US officials in dealing with each other, the alliance has been described as largely tactical in nature, aimed at enabling the US to pursue its post-9/11 zero-tolerance objectives but not as part of any long-term strategy for the region.

Economic ties are another area of bilateral relations that may provide an incentive to the US to manage strategic issues more carefully. India has some unique advantages over Pakistan. One, the booming Indian IT industry, which is of vital to US companies as a cost-effective back-office. This industry’s revenues total US$ 8 billion, 70 percent of which come from exports, with 60 percent going to the US. Indian-developed software, information systems and programmes are widely used in the world’s banks, ports, terminals, and even in the satellite phone technology of foreign militaries. Another emerging source of influence for India is the 1.5 million-plus community of Indian-Americans in the US. Having become prosperous, thanks to the IT boom, this group forms one of the wealthiest minorities in the US, and has begun to acquire increasing clout in Washington. Pakistan, however, has yet to establish itself in these two areas.

Yet another factor in India’s favour is the sheer size of its domestic market which, at an estimated 300 million middle class consumers, is more than twice the entire population of Pakistan. Further, in terms of merchandise exports, India has a wide range of products to offer its trading partners, including chemicals, engineering goods, gems and jewellery, textiles and even a small quantity of petroleum products. Almost 59 percent of Pakistan’s exports, on the other hand, come from a single item, cotton.

However, while the US is one of the largest trading partners for both India and Pakistan, the two countries are small fry in terms of their shares in the total US trade. Pakistan ranks 57^th in the US’s list of trading partners, while India, though faring reasonably better, is only 25^th. This is a far cry from the kind of reverse-dependency the Chinese enjoy – China is fourth, trading almost ten times as much as India with the US. Clearly, trade expansion is an area on which both India and Pakistan should build in the years ahead, since significant economic ties with the US can insulate diplomatic relations from political changes in either country.

In conclusion, Pakistan has managed to foster strong diplomatic relations with the Bush administration, and the time is right for India to safeguard its national interests by articulating the role it will play in the Asian region. Finally, India has the potential for establishing enduring economic ties with the US, and boosting them could be a determining factor in future bilateral relations.