Will the war on Iraq secure American global interests? Would the costs of war be less than the benefits to the US that would finally accrue? The objective of the war is to remove Saddam Hussain from power, either physically or politically, so that peace may prevail in the region to secure American interests in the Gulf.

What are the costs of this war? Politically, it has already cost the US dearly by opening fissures in the trans-Atlantic alliance. Apart from the United Kingdom, no other major power in Europe supports the US. France and Germany, though dismissed as the Old Europe are, in reality, important countries for any future American foreign policy objectives in Europe. Both countries are part of NATO and G-8. France is also a member of the nuclear club along with Russia and China. Without an iota of doubt, the first casualty of the war against Iraq, much before the first missile was fired has been this trans-Atlantic alliance.

The second casualty is the United Nations. By bypassing the United Nations to achieve its interests, the US has set a bad precedent. The ‘national security’ approach could also be pursued by other countries, especially by the other permanent members of the UN Security Council. If China decides to attack Taiwan unilaterally to secure its ‘national interests,’ will the US be able to mobilize the UN against it? China can also use the US argument and the UN will get divided. If the US can do it, why not China? If the UN was devised to democratize the world by the early leaders of the US, then nothing can destroy that fundamental objective than the current war against Iraq.

The next casualty, undoubtedly, is the nuclear non-proliferation regime that the US has carefully constructed. By taking on Iraq at this juncture, the US has encouraged North Korea to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Had Bush been less obsessed with Iraq, he would have realized that North Korea needs immediate attention. Now with the war on Iraq under progress, North Korea will continue to proliferate. Even after the war is over, the US would not find it morally possible to garner adequate support against North Korea. Moreover, the domestic support for the Bush administration would be so weak that he would not be able to take any punitive measure against North Korea.

Another casualty will be the war against terrorism. Though the Bush administration is at pains to explain that the war against terrorism and war against Sadaam Hussain will proceed together, it is evident that the former has already received a jolt. Unless a miracle occurs and bin Laden is captured or killed, the war against terrorism will suffer a slow death. The beneficiary, without any doubt, will be the Muslim fundamentalists, for whom support is already growing. If there was any doubt in the minds of liberal Muslims regarding the US, the war against Iraq will remove them and make the US the number one threat to Muslim nations. In other words, the war against Sadaam Hussain will mark the beginning of what Huntington called the clash of civilizations.  Unlike the first Gulf War, Saddam is not seen as a madman or a rogue among the Muslim people. This would only increase the anti-American feeling among them, which in the long run will provide fodder to the jihadi machinery that the US is attempting to strike against.

Another casualty will be the Anglo-American solidarity, if the present opposition at the popular level in the United Kingdom continues to grow. Notwithstanding the resignations of a few ministers, if public dissatisfaction leads to hatred, then the future English leadership would find it difficult to support the US in the way that it had supported it earlier in the post second world war period. If Tony Blair faces a tough time in the coming days, then any future British Prime Minster would think of his own survival first rather than Anglo-American solidarity. The loosening of this solidarity will prove disastrous in future.

Finally, will Bush survive these two wars? His popularity started declining much before the war started, and with body bags coming home, American patriotism would turn against Bush. If Saddam is neither captured nor killed, or if the war prolongs itself for a long period, Bush would find the going difficult. In that case, his chances in the next Presidential elections would be bleak, especially with the steady decline of the American economy.

Then what is this war designed to achieve? Only Bush can explain!