That North East India needs peace is obvious. Equally apparent is the fact that insurgency stands in the way of realizing peace and development in the region. Discourses concerning the region therefore can safely consider how to bring about societal wellbeing and the essential factors for attaining that goal. The political system accords disproportionate importance to elections as a process by which the will of the people could be translated into legitimate authority for pursuing the wish list of the commoners, which includes a strong desire for peace and development. It will be interesting to examine the impact the recent elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura in this perspective, on efforts to end the chronic insurgency and pursuit of peace and development in the region.

In Nagaland, peace gained priority in the electoral agenda, courtesy the BJP’s electoral strategy of trying to make inroads into the state by holding talks with the NSCN (IM) on election eve, prompted also by strong yearnings for peace in the state. That the Congress, holding the reins of power for the past three terms, lost it is significant, reflecting the desire of the people to try out a new dispensation to achieve their goals. More significantly, despite emerging as the single largest party with 21 seats in the 60 member legislature, the congress was unable to rope in support of the smaller parties. The Naga Peoples Front (NPF), reportedly a legitimate front of the NSCN (IM), projected itself as principally committed to bringing peace to the state, has succeeded in forming the government in alliance with the BJP despite coming second. The support of the smaller parties for the NPF reflects the popular fascination for peace and its beneficial effects. However, this mandate for peace could face serious challenges. For one, there is little the NPF led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) could do to better the Congress government’s efforts, including the passing of unanimous resolutions on integration of Naga inhabited areas, to find a solution for the Naga political problem. Secondly, there are inherent systemic limitations on exercising state power, which can drive the NPF into discord with its alleged patron, the NSCN (IM). Thirdly, the NPF-led coalition, backed by the NSCN (IM), is likely to sharpen the cleavages within Naga society by further alienating the other factions represented by the NSCN (K) and the Naga National Council (NNC). That would be detrimental to the cohesion required for settling the Naga problem.

In Tripura, despite the claims of the victorious Left Front that its mandate is for peace, it is pertinent to note that the same ensemble of left parties had been in power for the past decade or so, but the security, law and order and insurgency situation in the state remains grave. The continuance of Left Front rule represent the problems of the numbers game in a democracy and, more importantly, reflects the debilitating effects of immigration, internal and cross-border, on the political and social life of the indigenous population. Given that the unrest in Tripura revolves around the protection of indigenous interests against an overwhelming demographic threat, and that the new government derives its support base principally from immigrants, it would require great optimism to conclude that the verdict forebodes a step towards ending insurgency in that state. The only solace is that the elections upheld the status quo; hence solutions can be attempted afresh; avoiding the ugly specter of a vengeful opposition grabbing power and using this to project narrow interests that could further aggravate conflict in the state.

The fractured mandate in Meghalaya reflects the failure of political parties to project substantive issues in the run up to the elections. It also mirrors the degenerate political norms of conduct where considerations of gaining power are ascendant over principled and issue based politics. Rampant horse-trading in previous assemblies has disillusioned the electorate to the extent that they have settled for immediate gains and petty local interests. In a state where insurgency is fast gaining strength, this fractured mandate and the predictably unstable Congress-led government which has emerged would not help matters. These circumstances prevalent had turned the once peaceful state into a nursery of discontent and insurgency during the last decade.

On the whole, the recent elections in these states represent a ‘going through the motions’ and cannot be expected to throw up any surprises by ushering peace, development and progress in these states individually, and the region in general.