Anger Mars Reason - Nuclear Rationale Ignored
30 May, 1998 · 100
Lt. Gen. A. M. Vohra (Retd.) argues that with policies of minimal deterrence, stability in South Asia would be enhanced; Indian and Pakistani leaders should recognise this and refrain from making inflamatory statements
On 18 May 1998 ,
India
’s Home Minister L. K. Advani said, "
Islamabad
should realize the change in the geo-strategic situation in the region and the world…". He referred to
India
’s "bold and decisive step" which has brought about "a qualitative new stage in Indo-Pak relations".
Pakistan
’s foreign minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, observed at about the same time that by carrying out nuclear tests,
India
has created "a war-like situation in the region". When asked about the possibility of a nuclear attack on
Pakistan
’s nuclear installations, he stated that there was a very strong possibility and added, "Our reply will be swift and sharp that the Indians would remember for centuries". In elaboration he said, "
India
is threatening us with Prithvi…. We have small cities with small populations while Indian cities are big. We will retaliate with Ghauri".
India
and
Pakistan
have been recognized for some years now. Their development and refining is a continuing process; Hatf, Prithvi, Ghauri, Agni are the manifestations of these. These dual nuclear and missile developments have provided stability; nuclear deterrence is already operative. The boast of Mr. Advani is school-boyish and the anger of Mr. Gohar Ayub Khan loses sight of the fact that, in two full-scale wars in 1965 and 1971, neither country has targeted cities. The two countries have also signed a treaty prohibiting attacks on each other’s nuclear installations.
India
’s tests have been accompanied by assurances that it views nuclear weapons purely as a means of deterrence and NOT as weapons of war. It has also emphasized that their use is visualised only in retaliation. This is, ipso facto, a declaration of "no first use."
Pakistan
’s concern at
India
’s display of a proven capability for weaponisation, designing nuclear weapons of different yields and improved computer simulations for carrying out sub-critical tests, is understandable as is its desire to carry out its own tests. Angry outbursts even in response to bravado or provocative questions serve no national or international purpose.
Pakistan
would also be justified for similar reasons.
India
can’t have any objection.
Pakistan
. If the nuclear strategic rationale is correctly applied in the cause of deterrence, the new status of
India
and
Pakistan
as nuclear weapons states will aid stability. Statements by political leaders that ignore this rationale should be replaced by meaningful dialogue to evolve safeguards and confidence building measures in the field of nuclear security. As the dust at Pokhran and Chagai settles, the prime ministers should give practical shape to their calls for talks and a non-aggression pact.
South Asia
as the nuclear strategy of both is minimum deterrence. We have the background of NATO and
Warsaw
alliances abandoning the strategy of nuclear war fighting and reducing their arsenals. The overt nuclear status of
India
and
Pakistan
and the controlled weaponisation that is likely to follow are a blow indeed to the non-proliferation concerns of the
USA
, but the preservation of monopoly forever was a vain hope.
The nuclear and missile capabilities of
Minimal proliferation will continue in spite of the rigours of the NPT regime. A nuclear weapon-free world has therefore been a course advocated to safeguard the world against weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The debate on the CTBT dashed all hopes of universal nuclear disarmament. Tactfully, this is put across not as a difference in objective but rather of timing; it is proclaimed that nuclear weapons are needed for another fifty years or so. In these circumstances of legitimization of nuclear weapons, Indian Government’s tests are a step both to reassure itself and the people of its scientific cum technological capability. Tests by
At the time of this writing, news has just come of the tests carried out by
A nuclear weapon arms race is not an issue in
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