Developments in Pakistan I: Report of IPCS Seminar

29 Nov, 1999    ·   292

Sonika Gupta reports on a seminar addressed by Lt. Gen. A. M . Vohra and P. R. Chari
Sonika Gupta
Speakers: Gen. A. M. Vohra & Mr. P. R. Chari

 

 

Date of Seminar: 15 October 99

 

 

 

 

The discussion centered on a causal and predictive analysis of the coup in Pakistan .

 

 

Analyzing the causes of the coup, General A. M. Vohra said the Pakistan army has always been keen to assume a decision-making role in national affairs. Simultaneously, it is interested in maintaining a lobby within the national executive. Hence, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's understanding with the US on Pakistani withdrawal from Kargil was a major humiliation for the Pakistan Army. Further Sharif's high handedness in dealing with senior army officers added insult to injury.  He displayed a lack of caution in dismissing  Gen. Pervez Musharraf in an atmosphere of hostility to the army in Pakistan . Gen. Musharraf  was pushed to the wall and had to fight back for his survival. According to Gen. Vohra, the economic and diplomatic considerations will force Gen. Musharraf to return to civil rule an revive its institutions. The army may wield 'behind-the-scenes power' in Pakistan by installing a suitable successor to Nawaz Sharif.

 

 

P R Chari analyzed the situation in Pakistan in the light of his recent interactions with a cross section of Pakistani academicians, policy makers and media persons at various international fora.  According to him, the major reasons for the coup lay in the sidelining of the military by Sharif. His deal with the US was seen as having cheated the Pakistan army of an imminent victory in Kargil. Further, Sharif was already unpopular in Pakistan because of his corrupt and despotic practices.  There was no viable political alternative  to Sharif, with Benazir Bhutto and Ejaz-ul Haq, son of Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, having been politically discredited. Therefore, the coup had won popular support in Pakistan , despite the global diapproval of military takeovers.

 

 

 

 

American influence is seen to be of pivotal influence for the return of civilian rule in Pakistan . The steady Islamization of the Pakistan polity and Army is not favorable to the US .  It spells increasing uncertainty and chaos in Pakistan , which is dangerous for the region.

 

 

 

 

Debate

 

 

The ensuing discussion broadened to include the issue of fundamentalism and its effect on Indo-Pak relations.

 

 

·                     Though Kargil was sold by the Army as a victory in Pakistan and Sharif  had been blamed for denying Pakistan Army a possible victory,  the truth is that the Indian forces had recaptured most of the Dras and Batalik sectors by the time Sharif decided to withdraw from Kargil. Therefore US influence was not of crucial importance in resolving the Kargil crisis.

 

·                     Musharraf possibly does not want to create a constitutional vacuum, so he will probably  try to legitimize his authority  through a national government.

 

·                     The increasing influence of fundamentalism in Pakistan will have serious consequences for India and the region at large.  The madrasa culture in Pakistan is  producing  a  crop of young men for  recruitment to fundamentalist organisations.

 

·                     However, the rise of fundamentalism in Pakistan is not a homogenous phenomenon. It has complexities of class and region that should be kept in mind while assessing  the fundamentalist threat from Pakistan .

 

·                     One must not lose sight of the fact that the Pakistan army is a professional and well-trained army. It enjoys the trust and faith of the people of Pakistan ; more than the political parties do. It has always wielded behind -the-scenes power, and in that sense it would be beneficial for the Indian Government to establish a dialogue with Gen. Musharraf's military regime.

 

·                     India could consider revoking Pakistan 's MFN status to pressure the military regime in Pakistan .

 

The Chair rounded up the discussion with the following comments.

 

 

·                     India had  won the Kargil war by  pushing the Pakistani intruders back. Therefore, Pakistan had no choice but to withdraw. The US influence, thus, played a much less crucial role than was portrayed by Pakistan .

 

·                     Though India has the option of compounding Pakistan 's economic problems by revoking its MFN status, it would be imprudent to do so.

 

 

 

 

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