India's Strategic Misstep
08 Jun, 1998 · 110
Stephen P. Cohen points out how India has soured its relations with Pakistan, China and the US due to its decision to nuclearize
In the three weeks since
India
conducted its nuclear tests, the tough talk of Indian leaders seems to have faded to a whisper. They are now proposing that their country and
Pakistan
sign a treaty agreeing not to be the first to use such weapons against each other. They have denied
Pakistan
's claim that
India
will conduct yet another nuclear test, and they have reiterated the country's longstanding call for global disarmament.
India
's national security. First,
India
may have reopened its competition with
China
, this time with a nuclear tinge. Indeed, the Indian opposition has charged that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has jeopardized years of painstaking negotiations with
China
that in recent years had begun to show dividends in trade and troop pullbacks along their disputed border in northeast
India
.
China
is likely to continue its flow of technical advice, military equipment and economic aid to
Pakistan
. And
China
may once again support
Pakistan
's position on the disputed state of
Jammu and Kashmir
.
China
could also pressure
New Delhi
rather easily, by re-deploying troops along
India
's northeastern border. This would force
India
to send soldiers back to the
Himalayas
, thinning its forces in
Kashmir
and elsewhere. Moreover,
India
has not developed the medium-range missiles that could reach Chinese cities, whereas it is vulnerable to Chinese nuclear attack.
Pakistan
, its military has developed various nuclear responses -- from tactical weapons to an all-out attack on
New Delhi
and
Bombay
-- to counter any military movement by
India
across the border. Pakistani officials have also spoken of deploying the Ghauri missile, possibly with nuclear warheads. If that happens, the lives of Indians in New Delhi, Bombay and a half dozen other cities will depend on the Government in Islamabad -- a Government in which it is unclear who commands and controls the deployment of nuclear weapons.
India
by lifting the economic and military sanctions that have now been imposed. Mr. Vajpayee had thought that American businesses dependent on the Indian market would rush to defend their interests. But
India
is now blamed for triggering a new round of proliferation, and Congress is unlikely to be sympathetic to any easing of the sanctions.
India
's bombs were supposed to elevate it to the status of a great power. Instead,
India
finds itself with a worsening relationship with
Pakistan
,
China
and the
United States
. After the initial euphoria, it is clear that
India
must face reality and address the new strategic risks that it has created.
June 3, 1998
No one should be surprised by this abrupt about-face. As it turns out, the nuclear tests may have significantly hurt
Now, this détente is at risk.
As for
India has also needlessly angered the Clinton Administration, contributing to President Clinton's greatest foreign policy disaster. Not only was his Administration caught off guard, but his hopes for Senate ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty are dimmer than ever. Nor is Congress likely to rescue
An extract from The New York Times,