The long awaited war to liberate Iraq is now five days old. Unlike the 1991 Gulf, 1999 Kosovo, and 2001 Afghanistan wars, that the US fought, this one has little justification. Protests are mounting the world over. While one cannot hold a brief for Saddam Hussein, it is equally difficult to swallow the righteous claims of the Bush administration. 9/11 might not have changed the world, but this latest American adventure would undoubtedly do so. The US led coalition forces have so far failed to show any spectacular results. Iraqi resistance have been taking a fairly heavy toll of the US and Royal Marines. There is as yet no confirmation of even a single major town or city having been fully secured from the Iraqi regime and at least nine oil wells near Basra and the Nasiriya pipe lines are on fire. The coalition has suffered some 24 dead and 50 wounded. The tragic loss of a RAF Tornado to friendly fire, the collision of two British Sea Kings and the downing of a further two AH-64 Apache attack helicopters have not exactly glorified the mighty super power. But these are no great setbacks for such things happen during intensive phases of any air operation. Murphy’s Law operates even in war.  

Since all these images are regularly being beamed into every household, Bush would find it difficult to maintain the credibility of his sophisticated war machine. Unlike the previous occasions, air power has been used only to target the Iraqi regime in Baghdad. Merely destroying buildings that in peacetime houses Iraqi Ministry of Defence and the head quarters of the Baath Party is unlikely to tame the wily Saddam. US air power has apparently lost its shock effect. Although some reports claimed that many civilians have left Baghdad, the ordinary Iraqi was often seen on the streets of Baghdad, reassured that the US air power will not target him.

The air and ground war commenced almost simultaneously. Since the key objective of the war is to occupy the country before liberating it, it is quite natural for the Coalition forces to race towards Baghdad, leaving the clearing up of Iraqi strongholds for another day. But moving ahead without securing your rear and flanks can be dangerous. The coalition air power was not allowed the minimum necessary time to suppress the Iraqi air defences. Perhaps it was wrongly assumed that at least in the long enforced ‘no-fly-zones’ the Iraqis would have little left to oppose the invader. The Iraqis seem to be making full use of their air defence artillery which is effective against the low flying helicopters and the A-10 close support aircraft. The launching of ten (?) missiles into Kuwait, some four of these were apparently intercepted by the patriot batteries, has confirmed that the Iraqis still have some Scuds left over from Gulf War-I and that air superiority is as important today as it was during the Second World War.

Targeting also becomes extremely difficult when the objective is to occupy the country. The Americans, after all have to work with the people of Iraq to bring democracy to that ‘oppressed’ nation. The more the destruction and collateral damage, the more angry and traumatised the ordinary denizen of Iraq would be; and this would make the task of governing the country that much more complicated.

There are no visible signs of en masse surrenders or welcome cheers from the so-called Saddam opponents. Whether or not the Iraqis would actually thank Bush for ridding them of Saddam Hussein is a moot point. Never forget, that for all the veneer of civilisation and a secular and modern outlook, the Iraqis believe in the old concept of loyalty to the clan chieftain. They are fanatically nationalistic and consider themselves superior to their neighbours. Saddam will no doubt play the Arab card and try to invoke Arab solidarity, but he and his people have no love lost with the proximate, corrupt and decadent monarchies.

The two major aims of the war are to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and effect a regime change. The only unconventional weapon Saddam has used so far is oil. He has set fire to his oil wells and to the oil-filled trenches surrounding Baghdad. If he does not use any WMD when his very survival is at stake one can safely assume that he does not possess them. But it is still early days. Unless the Bush administration actually proves that Iraq indeed possessed WMD, he would end up with egg on his face.