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#3015, 25 November 2009
Obama in Southeast Asia: Winds of Change?
Tuli Sinha
Research Officer, SEARP, IPCS
e-mail: tuli_sn@yahoo.com

Barrack Obama’s much awaited sojourn to Asia and, in particular, to Southeast Asia instituted diverse connotations for the region. Obama’s trip to Singapore is historic as it marks the first ever summit of any American president with the leaders of Southeast Asia.

In recent years, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has gradually lost its essence by transforming into a mere talk shop for counter terrorism strategy, cooperation on battling pandemic disease, and other unrelated issues. Thus, the US participation in the APEC has somehow added tremendous prestige to its fading credibility as an economic organization for the most dynamic part of the globe, specifically designed to boost trade and investment liberalization.

Unlike the Bush Administration, which focused exclusively on the larger Asian players like China and India, Obama Administration is focusing on rather smaller countries signaling a break with his predecessor's foreign policy very deliberately and successfully. Obama’s declaration of himself as the US's first "Pacific President" indicates America’s new Asian focus, also reflective of the fact that that the region has been neglected in the past much to the US's detriment in maintaining its pre-eminent position in the region vis-a-vis China. Therefore, it becomes imperative to analyze how America calibrates its new engagement and the resulting reaction of China which will definitely play a significant role in determining the regional stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia.

Historically, United States’ clout in the region was first hit by its perceived indifferent and opportunistic response to the 1997-98 Asian financial crises, where it espoused the superiority of Western management and professed that more open markets were the best solution to the crisis. Further, similar feeling of neglect was reinforced by America’s focus on counter-terrorism issues post 9/11 and ignoring regional trade and investment initiatives altogether. Moreover, Chinese influence in the region has grown considerably since the 1997-98 financial crises and extended in the wake of the current global economic crisis. The late 1990s saw China's policy shift away from a confrontational approach, which included material support for several communist insurgencies, a brief invasion of Vietnam and high tensions with several Southeast Asian claimants to potentially oil-rich areas in the South China Sea. In its place, China began using what many analysts have dubbed as a "soft power" approach to regional diplomacy, combining improved diplomatic relations with heavy investment in economic and infrastructure development projects. The new strategy has seen China work most closely with the region's authoritarian regimes, most notably with Myanmar.

This sudden realization of China's growing clout gave rise to fears among some US officials that America's long-standing influence in the region could be eclipsed. Changes began under the Bush administration with the creation of a US ambassador for ASEAN Affairs and Obama has carried forward those efforts, beginning with the Secretary of State - Hillary Clinton's inaugural trip to the region in February when she visited the ASEAN secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Under a doctrine of engaging both friends and foes, a new US policy was announced at the end of September 2009 that provided for the diplomatic engagement with Myanmar's military regime. The policy offers an alternative to the strict sanctions-led policies of the Bill Clinton and Bush era and removes a recurring impediment to US-ASEAN ties caused by ASEAN's insistence of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states and the US animosity towards the rights-abusing military regime.

In an address to ASEAN leaders, including Myanmar Prime Minister Lieutenant General Thein Sein, Obama called for the release of pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and other political prisoners, and also for an end to the repression of ethnic minorities. Surprisingly, Myanmar has not been the only focus of the Obama administration's re-engagement with Southeast Asia. The Chinese allies in the region such as Cambodia and Laos have also seen recent US moves aimed to balance Beijing's influence. For instance, US development and military aid has recently been increased in both countries.

Renewed US interest in the region is welcomed by most ASEAN members as a useful counterbalance to China's surging influence. Although China has become an increasingly powerful economic force in the region, their export-driven economies still rely on US markets to fuel growth and America's military still plays a leading role in many regional countries, which includes being a source of weapons and training to counter-terrorism forces in Indonesia and the Philippines, where terror networks linked to al-Qaeda are still active. Though it is quite early to predict the positive implications of this recent shift in the US policy, Southeast Asia is definitely going to benefit from the super power competition and revived regional attention.

 

 
Related Article
Changing Contours: US Policy towards Myanmar
Clinton’s visit to Southeast Asia: Implications for India
Southeast Asia-US Relations: Strategic Shifts
Clinton’s Message to Southeast Asia

 
Article by same Author
Cambodia-China Relations and Recent Developments
The India-ASEAN FTA: An assessment
Clinton’s visit to Southeast Asia: Implications for India
Bombings in Jakarta
Myanmar-China Energy Engagement : Implications for India
India-ASEAN FTA and India’s Northeast
Southeast Asia-US Relations: Strategic Shifts

 
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