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Indo-US Nuclear Deal and Japan's Policy Options

Indian diplomats have been scurrying around the globe to lobby for the Indo-US nuclear deal. Japan's position is being keenly watched worldwide, since it is an important member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) which is meeting on 21-22 August to consider India's bid for a 'clean and unconditional waiver' of its guidelines. India sought Japan's support during the visit of Japanese Foreign Minister, Masahiko Koumura, to New Delhi. This was after the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) approved the India-Specific Safeguards Agreement and coincided with the 63rd anniversary of the Hiroshima bombings.

The Japanese peace constitution shuns force to settle international disputes. In 1967, Japan enunciated its famous three non-nuclear principles of no possession, no production and no positioning of nuclear weapons on its soil. The plea of the 'Hibaskusha,' the survivors of the atomic bombings and nuclear accidents, like at the Tokaimura reprocessing plant in 1999, has heightened Japanese support for a nuclear-free world. Given this backdrop, the Japanese Foreign Minister insisted that India sign the NPT and CTBT. However, Japan did not oppose the India specific Safeguards Agreement at the IAEA meeting. Indications are that it will not oppose the waiver India is seeking at the NSG. Japan's support, albeit tacit, for the deal can be attributed to three major reasons.

First, Japan and India have moved closer by fostering strategic relations. Second Japan's opposition to the deal might antagonize the US - its closest ally. Finally, Japan itself is a major user of nuclear energy and the Indo-US nuclear deal is being projected as being pro-non-proliferation and as being eco-friendly. Last year, the Indo-Japan Friendship year was celebrated and the summit-level meetings in 2000 and 2005 underlined the importance of their bilateral strategic partnership. In 2007, both nations enunciated a 'Roadmap for New Dimensions to the Strategic and Global Partnership.' India and Japan are negotiating a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and are engaged in bilateral policy dialogues, which cover but are not limited to defence and energy security. Joint Working Groups (JWGs) on areas of common concern like counter-terrorism and urban development illustrate the gamut of issues on which India and Japan are coming together. Japan realizes that opposition to the Indo-US deal might upset this bilateral apple cart.

Japan's foreign policy, as Michael Green puts it, remains cautious about American foreign policy concerns, and its strategic culture is becoming sensitive to great power relations. The costs of antagonizing the US, its closest ally, as also India, its natural partner in Asia, far outweigh the benefits of doing so. The US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Richard Boucher, visited Tokyo after the IAEA meeting, to lobby for the deal. India-Japan-US trilateral relations have come closer as they share common values like respect for democracy, rule of law and protection of human rights. Common regional security and economic concerns like countering terrorism, promoting democracy and financial stability in Asia and protecting maritime traffic also bind them together and any setback to their relations would adversely affect the pan-Asian initiatives designed to meet these objectives.

Finally, while strictly adhering to the international nuclear regimes like the NPT and the CTBT and subjecting itself to full scope IAEA inspections, Japan has made the peaceful use of nuclear energy a strategic priority, particularly after the oil shock of 1973. Japan seeks to reduce its dependence on oil imports and has inked civilian nuclear agreements with a host of European countries and the US. It ranks after the US and France in terms of installed nuclear capacity and seeks to increase the share of nuclear energy in total power generation to more than 40 per cent in less than a decade. This will also help Japan achieve the greenhouse gas emission reduction goals stipulated under the Kyoto protocol.

Japan appreciates the energy concerns of growing economies like India. The 2007 joint statement recognized that nuclear energy is a safe, sustainable and non-polluting source of energy. Japanese companies like Mitsubishi, Toshiba and Hitachi can benefit from civilian nuclear cooperation. Japan's passive support for this deal and insistence on India signing disarmament treaties are meant to address its domestic proliferation concerns. India and Japan are engaged in an annual dialogue on disarmament and non-proliferation and India has assured Japan that it is committed to total disarmament and strict adherence to the principles of non-proliferation. India hopes that Japan, like France and Russia, is convinced that the Indo-US nuclear deal and the agreement with IAEA will strengthen the non-proliferation regime. While Japan had frozen its loans to India after Pokhran-II, its foreign minister Masahiko Koumura announced an Official Development Assistance (ODA) of US$1.04 billion during his visit to India in August 2008.

Note: The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Government of India.