China: Great Power, Grand Projects
Bhartendu Kumar Singh
Indian Defence Accounts Service (Views expressed are author's own)

Historically, economic rise coupled with military might have led to great power status. Britain emerged as a great power in the 18th century because of its industrial revolution and naval supremacy. Japan's rise in the late 19th century owed much to the Meiji Restoration. While this equation holds true for almost all great powers, China is an exception. Apart from its economic reforms and military modernization, it is committed to some of the biggest projects of our times.

A traditional great power, China's recovery of its lost glory is on the anvil. As 2005 concluded, China's National Statistics Bureau revised its GDP upwards to the fourth largest in the world ($2.2 trillion) after US, Japan, and Germany. China may replace Japan as the second largest economy much before 2020. China's military clout is also on the rise. It spends some $60 billion on defence, the largest after the US. While working actively on diplomacy through bilateral and multilateral engagements, and white papers such as the recent one on its 'peaceful development', China has developed area denial capacity and pockets of military dominance in the Asia-Pacific region.
All these are part of Chinese attempt at 'comprehensive national power (CNP)'. Towards this end, China is also working on projects that will expand its latent power. China's 'poverty reduction' programme is a huge success reducing the number of its poor people to 200 million. To overcome rising regional inequality, China has launched 'Western development project' and 'Northeast revival' to develop these regions at par with coastal China. The Qinghai-Tibet Railway is an engineering feat, navigating an average height of 4,000 metres and mostly through permafrost region. Once this 1,956 kilometres route starts later this year, it will boost China's strategic reach near the Sino-Indian border and promote development of Tibet. Regional imbalance is also being overcome through other grand projects like the south-to-north water transfer project and the west-to-east gas pipeline project. Similarly, the Three Gorges is the largest multipurpose project in the world. Billed as China's biggest construction since the Great Wall, this energy dinosaur, once fully commissioned in 2009, will generate an additional 11 per cent of China's installed electricity capacity.

China has also emerged as the manufacturing and IT hub of the world. It is the biggest exporter of IT products, including mobile phones, note book PCs and digital cameras. Shanghai is the world's largest port after overtaking Singapore, and has emerged as the third largest trading nation ($1.4 trillion in 2005), running huge trade surpluses with the US and EU. Chinese companies are busy making aggressive takeovers, including of US companies. China continues to retain its lead in attracting FDI and is emerging also as a huge consumer market.

The great China story has just begun. China is building all the ingredients befitting a great power. Beijing and Shanghai are as good as any Western city in terms of urban infrastructure and social life. The upcoming Shanghai World Financial Centre, with a height of 492 meters, will be taller than Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur. China now produces its own bullet trains and operates a vast network of expressways. Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok airport is probably the most modern and innovative in design. China's plan to send a manned mission to the moon in 2007 is well on its way.

There are problems with China though. Its economy is one-sixth of the US and its military pales before US power. Education is laggard, scientific and technological manpower is poor and China has few global patents. China's progress on democracy is very slow. Its record on corruption, human rights, legal reforms and on ethnic minorities remains poor. In recent years, China's image has been dented by mine accidents, bird flu cases, and river pollutions.
However, China's potential power is enough to manage these problems. In many ways, the 2008 Beijing Olympics will herald the superpower status of China. It should be the overall runners up after the US if not the outright winner. The Chinese leadership is keen to make the event outstanding. Currently, China is undergoing a great English fever. China's long-term goal, however, seems to compete in an age of globalization where English is the preferred language. In addition, Mandarin is being marketed and a TOEFL-type test has been introduced for students coming to China.

If other great powers have risen and fallen in history it is because they indulged in imperial overstretch while overlooking internal hollowness. China's experience shows that it has learnt from history. The Chinese leadership perceives domestic resilience as important as external power and influence. Hence the big emphasis on major projects. Funding has come from China's own burgeoning economy and foreign investments. The success in these projects will reorient China and establish it as the second most powerful country after the US.

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